Why 2021 Exit Polls Failed In West Bengal But Got Tamil Nadu, Assam And Kerala Right: Look Back At Poll Accuracy In India

EXIT POLLS: With the 2026 exit polls on the horizon, let us take a look back at the predictions made during the 2021 state assembly election forecasts. During that election, none of the major polling agencies managed to have a perfect track record in India’s state assembly elections held in five states last year, which also put to the test the reliability of the exit polls in different political environments. All four of India’s leading poll agencies, Axis My India, C-Voter, Jan Ki Baat, and Today’s Chanakya, got at least one result right but also miscalculated at least one other result in their forecasts.

What happened in Exit Polls 2021? 

Exit polls in the 2021 Assembly elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Assam have provided a varied assessment of the performance of pollsters in the country.

West Bengal Exit Polls 2021

In West Bengal, the exit polls were widely inaccurate and, in some cases, misleading. The majority of pollsters forecasted a neck-and-neck contest between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with some even hinting at a possible BJP win. But the election final results revealed a landslide victory for the TMC. Under the leadership of Mamata Banerjee, it won 213 of the 294 seats, a massive victory. The exit polls in Bengal clearly under-estimated the TMC’s win and over-estimated the BJP’s win; Bengal was the biggest failure of the 2021 exit polls.

Tamil Nadu Exit Polls 2021

In Tamil Nadu, exit polls were successful in forecasting the result. The majority of polls showed a strong win for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance, which is exactly what transpired. The alliance, headed by M. K. Stalin, secured 159 of the 234 seats, returning to power after a decade. There were some variations in the seat range, but the overall winner was correctly predicted, making Tamil Nadu one of the exit polls’ successes.

Kerala Exit Polls 2021

Another instance can be found in the state of Kerala. In this case, too, the polls managed to accurately predict the emergence of an LDF victory. In fact, the exit polls estimated that the LDF, which was headed by Pinarayi Vijayan, would end up winning as many as 99 out of the total 140 seats. It is worth noting that Kerala is notorious for having alternating governments every five years. In light of this, the exit polls correctly forecast the change in this trend.

Assam Exit Polls 2021

Finally, it should be mentioned that in the state of Assam, the exit polls yielded one of the most accurate predictions that the Indian election system had seen yet. Indeed, in this particular case, most polling agencies accurately predicted that the BJP-led NDA would manage to retain its power in Assam. As expected, NDA won as many as 75 out of the total 126 seats available. Therefore, in Assam, both the outcome and the margin were in accordance with the exit polls’ expectations.

MUST READ: Kerala Exit Poll Results 2026 Live: Pinarayi Vijayan Set To Be Dethroned? UDF Likely To Gain Majority With 70–80 Seats As LDF Trails, Check Full Breakdown Here As Congress Eyes Big Comeback