Explained: How Trump’s Mass Deportation Drive Could Shrink US Workforce and Economy

For the first time in 50 years, the United States is on track to experience negative net migration, which could effectively see more people leaving the country than entering it, according to a recent report published by Fortune. This unsettling forecast comes from a new working paper published by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a conservative economic think tank.

A Rare Shift: Negative Net Migration in the US

The report predicts that in 2025, about 525,000 people will emigrate from the US, while only roughly 115,000 immigrants will arrive. This net loss of workers could have ripple effects on the American economy, labor force growth and in turn, consumer spending.

Why It Matters: Immigrants Are Key to the Workforce

Immigrants make up a substantial share of the US labor force – about 19.2% as of 2024, according to Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data cited by Fortune. Co-author Tara Watson, an economist with the Brookings Institution and Williams College, explained to the publication why this matters.

“Our workforce is disproportionately made up of immigrants relative to their share of the population, and because of that we really can’t sustain a high level of job growth with the US-born population alone, because there just aren’t enough bodies, essentially, to do that.”

In other words, the shrinking number of immigrant workers means fewer people to fill jobs, making it tough for businesses to grow and for the economy to expand.

ALSO READ: Explained: Why Ukraine Wants More Patriot Missiles and How They Can Help Stop Russian Attacks

The Economic Impact: Shrinking GDP and Spending

The report further warns that fewer immigrant workers combined with a drop in immigrant consumer spending who wielded $299 billion in spending power and paid $167 billion in rent in 2023 could shave 0.3% to 0.4% off America’s GDP growth. With the US economy valued at roughly $23.5 trillion, this translates to an estimated $70.5 billion to $94 billion lost annually, the report said.

Calling the projected labor loss “startling,” Wendy Edelberg, also a Brookings economist and co-author of the paper, noted that the surge of work permit applications earlier in 2025 likely reflected immigrants rushing to secure jobs before the crackdown intensified.

“We are not going to ride that wave forever,” Edelberg reportedly said as she predicted payroll growth will slow to 30,000–40,000 new jobs per month in late 2025, signaling a much lower ceiling for labor growth. And if immigration stays weak through 2027, job growth could even turn negative.

Trump’s Crackdown: Mass Deportations and Policy Push

Immigration enforcement has been a key focus for President Donald Trump in his second term, with his administration reportedly pouring $45 billion into the Department of Homeland Security and allocating over $11 billion annually to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to ramp up deportations.

Data shows nearly 67,000 immigrants were detained and over 71,000 deported in fiscal 2025, the report said, adding that many others reportedly self-deported or left voluntarily amid fears of harsh policies.

Watson warned that the environment is going to make people, especially students, reluctant to come study in the US. Temporary workers, too, might end up questioning whether this is the right place for them to come to work, Watson told the publication.

ALSO READ: Explained: How Trump’s ‘Big Bill’ Is Shaping the 2026 House Midterm Battle

White House Pushback: ‘No Shortage of American Hands’

The White House dismissed the AEI report as “baseless fear-mongering,” stressing that 10% of young Americans aren’t working or studying, implying there are enough native-born workers to fill roles.

“There is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force,” White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson told Fortune, adding that Trump’s mass deportation campaign would mean “higher wages and more opportunity for American workers.”

Real-World Struggles: Businesses Feeling the Pinch

On the ground, industries reliant on immigrant workers are already feeling the strain. A recent Bloomberg report suggests farm workers have avoided jobs for fear of ICE raids, while nursing homes are struggling to attract staff as immigration slows.

Deke Cateau, CEO of Atlanta’s AG Rhodes nursing homes, where one-third of staff are reportredly immigrants, told the Associated Press, “We feel completely beat up right now. The pipeline is getting smaller and smaller.”

Social Security and Community Impact

Undocumented immigrants contributed $25.7 billion in Social Security taxes in 2022, according to estimates from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy cited by the publication. There’s a “very tight correlation between how many people are coming” into the US and the “degree to which we can sustain Social Security” at current levels, Fortune quoted Watson as saying.

Edelberg also suggested that the social impact, including scenes of ICE raids, National Guard mobilisation, and community fears are likely to overshadow the measurable economic effects.

“The broad macroeconomic events are going to be pretty modest,” she said. “In terms of how we’re affected by this immigration policy, I think they will be dwarfed by how we engage with this policy, just in the images and in our communities.”

ALSO READ: Could US Sanction India If Putin Doesn’t End War With Ukraine? Here’s What Trump Said