Donald Trump says Israel must decide on next Gaza steps as Hamas deal collapses. He pledged more US aid, lamented lack of gratitude, and raised food theft claims. (Photo/X.)
US President Donald Trump is embroiled in the Epstein case and the headlines are chasing him wherever he travels. This week Trump visited Scotlad and reporters chased him to get his comments on the infamous case.
Now the gambling markets are also chasing the Epstein case. The likelihood of the White House releasing Jeffrey Epstein-related documents has surged past 50%, with over $5 million put on the outcome this week.
According to Kalshi, a prediction market platform where users bet on real-world events, interest in the Epstein files spiked sharply after reports emerged that the Department of Justice informed former President Donald Trump in May that his name appears in the controversial records.
“We have seen dramatic activity in the Epstein files market,” said Jack Such, head of media at Kalshi, speaking to The NY Post.
The odds of a document release rose further on Friday, reaching 60%, after revelations that Ghislaine Maxwell had reportedly provided the DOJ with information on “100 different people” connected to Epstein.
Kalshi has clarified that bets will only be paid out if the released files contain new, previously unreleased information. Any material already available to the public will not qualify.
“Prediction markets are the most accurate tool available to predict future political events,” Such said, adding that “Kalshi routinely outperforms polls, expert opinion and other forms of prediction.”
Just two weeks ago, the odds of any new Epstein documents being released stood at a mere 13%.
Prediction markets, including Kalshi, were among the few to correctly forecast Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the New York City Democratic primary earlier this year.
Momentum is building in Congress to force the release of the documents. Several lawmakers are urging House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to schedule a vote on the issue when Congress reconvenes on September 2 after summer recess.
Johnson, however, sent members home early on Monday, saying Congress should give the Trump administration “space” to handle the issue independently.
House Oversight subcommittee voted 8-2 on Wednesday to subpoena the DOJ for the Epstein files. The vote saw bipartisan support, with Reps. Nancy Mace (R-NC), Scott Perry (R-PA), and Brian Jack (R-GA) joining Democrats in favor of the motion.
Zubair Amin is a Senior Journalist at NewsX with over seven years of experience in reporting and editorial work. He has written for leading national and international publications, including Foreign Policy Magazine, Al Jazeera, The Economic Times, The Indian Express, The Wire, Article 14, Mongabay, News9, among others. His primary focus is on international affairs, with a strong interest in US politics and policy. He also writes on West Asia, Indian polity, and constitutional issues. Zubair tweets at zubaiyr.amin
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