More Nukes In Asia? Experts Say Japan ‘Possesses Enough Nuclear Fuel’ And Could Produce Nuclear Weapons By 2028 If ‘Political Will Exists’

A fresh new debate has sparked over Tokyo’s non-nuclear stance, as Chinese experts believe that Japan could develop nuclear weapons in less than three years. Similar words were said by late US statesman Henry Kissinger, and Chinese assessments seem to agree with him. Kissinger, in a 2023 interview, said that Japan was “heading towards becoming a nuclear power in five years.” 
 
According to reports, experts believe that Japan has the technical ability to build nuclear weapons quickly, as its growing political motivation is driven by regional threats from China and North Korea. They further suggest that Japan’s advanced industrial base and nuclear expertise, which have been developed by decades of civilian nuclear technology, could be repurposed to create the weapons if the political will exists. 

The recent comments made by senior officials in the Japanese prime minister’s office indicate this shift. They said that, given the sensitive and deteriorating security environment around the country, “Japan should possess nuclear weapons.” 

Japan’s nuclear policy commitments

It is to be noted that Tokyo has a post war policy that commits Japan to neither possess, produce, nor permit the introduction of nuclear arms into its territory. However, Japan’s government maintains its official stance, as confirmed by Secretary Minoru Kihara when he said on December 18 that the nation has pledged “to never possess nuclear weapons … has not changed.” 

A nuclear scientist from western China said that, “Technically speaking, Japan possesses sufficient industrial capacity to build even more advanced nuclear weapons than these countries in a short time. Moreover, Japan has stockpiled enough nuclear fuel under the pretext of civilian nuclear power.”

This discussion indicates changing dynamics in the broader regional anxieties about nuclear proliferation. However, presently, IAEA’s oversight of Japan’s nuclear materials and the Japanese government’s official commitment to the three non-nuclear principles maintain the status quo.

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