Categories: Business

What Is Shaping the Stock Market Today? 3 Overnight Changes: Trump’s Tariff Pause and India–US Deal Spark Global Market Cheer

Stock Market Today: Indian markets are set for a strong gap-up as an India–US trade deal slashes tariffs, boosts global risk sentiment, lifts Asian markets, and revives bullish momentum on Dalal Street.

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Published by Aishwarya Samant
Last updated: February 3, 2026 08:24:24 IST

Stock Market Today: While we were sleeping the stock market predicted a happy morning, here’s what changed while all the invetors were sleeping!

The reason for Dalal Street’s morning happiness lies in events that occurred during our sleeping hours. US President Donald Trump, who has established himself as a tariff-threat specialist, finally declared a long-awaited pause. The tariff conflicts between countries now appear to be in their final stage and are likely to remain so for the present time.

Trump introduced an India–US trade agreement after speaking with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, establishing a new trade relationship between the two countries. The US government reduced its reciprocal tariff rates on Indian products from 25% to 18% after weeks of strong tariff-related statements. India completed its agreement with the United States by committing to remove both tariff and non-tariff restrictions on American products.

The market strategy that demanded tariff increases against opponents showing any sign of weakness has now failed. Markets showed their approval of this unexpected development. Global risk sentiment improved, Asian stock markets recorded gains, and Indian stock indices prepared for an upward move. Investors receive permission to buy as tariff threats lose their dominance.

Stock Market Yesterday

Monday’s Market Recap

Indian equities snapped a two-day losing streak on Monday.

  • Sensex: Up 943.52 points (1.17%) to 81,666.46

  • Nifty 50: Gained 262.95 points (1.06%) to 25,088.40

The rally helped Nifty reclaim the crucial 25,000 level.

What Is Shaping The Stock Market Today? Global Cues

Gift Nifty Signals

  • Trading around 25,937–25,939

  • Premium of nearly 795–797 points over previous Nifty futures close

  • Indicates a strong gap-up opening for Dalal Street

Asian Market Cues

  • Japan:

    • Nikkei 225 surged 2.44%

    • Topix gained 1.94%

  • South Korea:

    • Kospi jumped over 5%, triggering a buy sidecar

    • Kosdaq rose 2.32%

  • Hong Kong:

    • Hang Seng index futures signalled a higher opening

Wall Street Overnight Performance

  • Dow Jones: Up 1.05% at 49,407.66

  • S&P 500: Gained 0.54% to 6,976.44

  • Nasdaq: Advanced 0.56% to 23,592.11

Stock Movers

US Economic Data

  • ISM Manufacturing PMI:

    • Rose to 52.6 in January

    • Up from 47.9 in December

    • First expansion after 10 months

    • Highest level since August 2022

Commodities Check

  • Precious Metals:

    • Gold rose 2.5% to $4,778.16/oz

    • Silver surged 4.3% to $82.69/oz

  • Crude Oil:

    • Brent crude up 0.1% at $66.36/barrel

    • WTI crude gained 0.2% to $62.24/barrel

Currency Market

  • Dollar Index: Steady at 97.50

  • Euro: Up 0.1% at $1.1804

  • Japanese Yen: Slightly stronger at 155.53 per dollar

Major Event That Will Trigger The Stock Market Today

India–US Trade Deal: Key Takeaways

The moment marks a unique occasion that concludes trade negotiations through actual agreements instead of threats. The United States has agreed to slash reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods to 18%, down from 25%, reflecting a shift from pressure tactics toward building a partnership. India has responded by making a full commitment to eliminate all tariffs and non-tariff barriers affecting US imports.

The agreement establishes stronger trade relations between the two countries while providing investors with greater confidence in their business operations. Markets are treating this as a meaningful policy shift, as it creates a pathway for a potential relief rally. Optimism around reduced tariff barriers is already visible, with Dalal Street beginning to reflect these positive developments.

Stock Market Today Outlook

Nifty 50 Outlook & Technical View

Nifty formed a bullish candle with an inside bar pattern.

Key Levels:

  • Immediate Support: 24,800–24,950

  • Resistance: 25,150–25,250

  • Major Hurdle: 25,300 (Call OI concentration)

A decisive move above the 200-DMA near 25,210 could confirm a short-term trend reversal.

Sensex Outlook & Levels to Watch

Sensex formed a bullish candle on daily charts, indicating further upside.

Key Levels (Kotak Securities):

  • Support: 81,500 | 81,200

  • Resistance: 82,200 (200-day SMA), then 82,500

A fall below 81,200 could weaken bullish sentiment.

(With Inputs From Reuters)

Also Read: Markets On Fire: Did The India-US Trade Deal Just Trigger An 800-Point GIFT Nifty Explosion?

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