Tamil Nadu Exit Polls 2026: Vijay’s TVK Set For Big Debut, Axis My India Predicts Neck-and-Neck Fight With DMK Alliance

Actor-turned politician Vijay’s party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), is being tipped for a strong debut in the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, according to the Axis My India exit poll. The projections suggest that TVK could deliver a blockbuster performance, even matching the vote share of the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK).

The Axis My India exit poll predicts that the DMK-led seven-party alliance could secure 92–100 seats, while TVK may win between 98 and 120 seats. Meanwhile, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)-led five-party alliance is projected to get 22–32 seats, pointing to a major shift in the state’s political landscape.

Exit Polls Signal Strong Debut for TVK

In a significant development, the survey also showed Vijay slightly ahead of Chief Minister M. K. Stalin in the race for the next Chief Minister. While 35 per cent of respondents supported Stalin, Vijay edged ahead with 37 per cent support.

However, not all exit polls are aligned with this prediction. Several other agencies have suggested that the DMK-led alliance may still return to power, indicating a close and competitive contest across the state.

Mixed Predictions From Different Exit Poll Agencies

The People Pulse exit poll projected 125–145 seats for the DMK-led alliance, while the AIADMK-led alliance, which also includes the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is expected to get 65–80 seats. In this scenario, TVK is projected to win just two to six seats.

Tamil Nadu, which has a total of 234 Assembly seats, has seen varied predictions from different pollsters. The Matrize exit poll estimates 122–132 seats for the DMK alliance and 80–100 seats for the AIADMK alliance, with TVK again limited to 0–6 seats.

More Exit Poll Trends Show Tight Contest

The P-MARQ exit poll projects 125–145 seats for the DMK-led alliance, 60–70 seats for the AIADMK-led alliance, and just one to six seats for TVK. On the other hand, People Insight presents a different picture, estimating 120–140 seats for the DMK alliance, 60–70 for the AIADMK alliance, and a much stronger 30–40 seats for TVK.

The DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) also includes the Indian National Congress, adding to its strength in the state. These varying projections highlight how unpredictable the final outcome could be.

Vijay’s Entry Makes Contest Triangular

Vijay’s entry into politics has clearly turned the Tamil Nadu elections into a triangular fight. Traditionally, the state’s politics has been dominated by the DMK and AIADMK alliances, but TVK’s rise has disrupted this pattern.

The actor-turned-politician, who enjoys strong popularity among the youth, recently described the voter turnout as a “pinnacle historical event” in the state’s electoral history. He also expressed confidence in his party’s performance.

Vijay Calls Election a ‘Democratic Festival’

“Greetings to all who reside in my heart,” Vijay wrote in a post on X. “Politics is something only for some celestial warriors. Only for those with excessive experience. Only for those who enjoy positions. The illusory calculations of those who confined and controlled politics within such specific boundaries have been shattered and crushed by ordinary people.”

He further added, “No one would have failed to be amazed seeing families, family by family, with little children, coming to vote, just like the crowds seen at temples anywhere for polling stations. And is that all? Can we not clasp our hands in salute to those democrats who came, spending great sums, from other states and even from foreign countries just to vote? The meaning of calling it an election festival, a democratic festival, was truly felt only yesterday. This April 23, 2026. Yet, this is only a beginning.”

With counting scheduled for May 4, all eyes are now on the final results to see whether Vijay’s debut will truly reshape Tamil Nadu politics or if the traditional players will retain control.

(With inputs from ANI)

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