Vikatan Election Survey: DMK, AIADMK Or Vijay – Who Will Form Govt In Tamil Nadu?

Vikatan Election Survey: The campaign for the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections is in full swing, with polling for 234 constituencies scheduled for April 23 and counting of votes set to take place on May 4. As political activity intensifies, major parties have unveiled their alliance strategies and seat-sharing arrangements. Chief Minister MK Stalin has anchored the campaign of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) around a broad and layered alliance under the Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA). Under the seat-sharing arrangement, the DMK will contest 164 seats. The Indian National Congress, led in Tamil Nadu by K. Selvaperunthagai, has been allocated 28 seats. The Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), led by Thol Thirumavalavan, will contest 8 seats. Meanwhile, the Left parties, the Communist Party of India and the Communist Party of India (Marxist), have been allotted 5 seats each.

AIADMK-BJP Front Banks on Anti-Incumbency In Tamil Nadu Elections

On the other side, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), led by Edappadi K. Palaniswami, has adopted a similar coalition approach. The party is consolidating dominant caste blocs and aims to capitalise on perceived anti-incumbency sentiment against the ruling DMK.

The AIADMK will contest 178 seats. Its ally, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has been allotted 27 seats. The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), led by Anbumani Ramadoss, will contest 18 seats, while the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), led by T. T. V. Dhinakaran, has been allocated 11 seats.

What Vikatan Election Survey Reveals About Tamil Nadu Elections

The electoral battle is shaping up as a four-cornered contest involving the DMK, AIADMK, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), and Naam Tamilar Katchi. In this backdrop, several pre-election opinion polls have begun to emerge, offering early projections.

A survey released by the Indian Political Democratic Strategies (IPDS) organisation has indicated that the DMK-led alliance is likely to return to power, One India Tamil reported.

Addressing reporters at the Chepauk Press Club, IPDS coordinator Thirunavukkarasu detailed the methodology of the survey.

“We conducted a statewide opinion poll among the public regarding the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections. In the fourth phase of our survey, we collected data by directly meeting 35,126 people across the state,” he said.

Vikatan Survey: Seat Projections

Separate findings from a survey conducted by Junior Vikatan provide further insight into the 2026 election trends.

DMK Alliance: 37.5% vote share (121 seats)

AIADMK Alliance: 33.63% vote share (83 seats)

TVK: 24.71% vote share (3 seats)

Tight contests: 27 seats

According to the Junior Vikatan survey, the DMK is unlikely to secure a clear majority on its own and may have to rely on support from its alliance partners to form the government. The AIADMK, too, is not projected to reach the majority mark.

The survey also indicates that TVK could secure victories in Perambur, Trichy East, and R.K. Nagar constituencies. Meanwhile, Villivakkam is expected to witness a closely fought contest.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an exit poll or an opinion poll reported by NewsX. The story is based on comments made by the surveyors and social media commentators. We do not intend to influence the voter behaviour by publishing this survey. Voters should take their own decisions.

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