China’s Economy In Trouble: Investment Falls, Retail Sales Hit Post-COVID Low As Property Crisis Deepens

China’s investment continued to decline in November, while retail sales experienced their slowest growth since the government lifted strict COVID-19 restrictions, as reported by The Epoch Times (TET).

Industrial output increased by 4.8 per cent year over year in November, a deceleration compared to the 4.9 per cent rise reported in October, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China. This growth fell short of the economists’ forecast of 5 per cent and represents the slowest growth since August 2024.

China Retail Sales Hit Post-COVID Low 

Retail sales, which measure consumer spending, grew by 1.3 per cent year over year, slowing from a 2.9 per cent increase in October. This outcome marked the lowest performance since December 2022, when China’s stringent COVID-19 measures were lifted, as noted in the TET report.

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“November figures indicate widespread weakness in domestic activity, mainly due to a reduction in fiscal expenditures,” said Huang Zichun, an economist at Capital Economics, in a commentary. “Although policy support should aid in stimulating a partial recovery in the months ahead, it likely won’t stop China’s overall growth from remaining subdued throughout 2026.” Over the first 11 months, investments in equipment, buildings, and other fixed assets outside of rural households decreased by 2.6 per cent compared to the same period last year, according to official data. This decline surpasses the 1.7 per cent drop noted from January to October, as reported by TET.

Real Estate Investments Decline

Fu Linghui, a representative of the statistics bureau, mentioned during a news briefing in Beijing that the 2.6 per cent drop in fixed asset investment over the first 11 months was primarily influenced by a decline in real estate investments. Additional data released on December 15 indicated that real estate investment had fallen by 15.9 per cent during the same timeframe, worsening from a 14.7 per cent decline noted in the first ten months.

Once accounting for a quarter of China’s gross domestic product, the property sector has been in decline since mid-2021, diminishing household wealth and heavily impacting consumption. The property crisis intensified in November, with home prices across 70 major Chinese cities continuing to decline, as shown in official data released on December 15. New home sales by value dropped by 11.2 per cent from January to November, a more significant fall than the 9.4 per cent decrease recorded from January to October, as emphasised in the TET report.

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