Thailand Lowers 2025 Tourist Forecast to 33.5 Million Amid Slower Travel Recovery

Thailand trimmed its forecast for visitors in 2025 to 33.5 million due to a slower rebound in travel and continued challenges for the tourism industry. This revised forecast was a reduction from the previous forecast, and down -7% from 2024 and a reduction of -17% from the pre-COVID level in 2019.

The Diminishing Trend in Tourist Arrivals

In the January to October 2025 timeframe, Thailand received an estimated 26.25 million foreign tourists, a decline of approximately -7.25% from the prior year. The primary sources are Malaysia and China, however, the numbers from China have severely declined overall. The decrease in visitors is partly attributed to safety concerns, political instability and tourists shifting to areas like Vietnam and Japan, which have a safer reputation, even form better value.

Revenue Impact and Spending Trends

The Tourism Council of Thailand expects tourism revenue to be down over 20% in 2025 compared to 2019, from 1.91 trillion baht to approximately 1.52 trillion. The revenue decline is greater than the decrease in visitors due to falling tourist spend. This shift is due at least in part to changing demographics and that many visitors remain budget-sensitive instead of spending as freely as visitors did in the past. 

Economic Challenges and Recovery Efforts

Thailand’s economic growth is in decline with forecasts of 2.2% in 2025 and dropping to 1.6% in 2026. A key ongoing issue is household debt is amongst the highest in the Asia region adding economic pressures.The government is exploring debt relief and supports local tourism to assist the tourism sector. It will be very difficult for Thailand to rebuild to pre-pandemic levels due to increasing competition from sources of tourism, behavioral change among travelers, and economic pressures. 

In summary, Thailand’s tourism sector in 2025 is now at its slowdown with less travelers and less spending which is causing lower forecasts and renewed requests for strong policy support for recovery.

This article is based on official data and statements from Thailand’s finance ministry. Tourist projections may change depending on global travel trends and economic conditions.

Inputs from reuters.