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Former CEA Subramanian: IMF's Consistent Inaccuracy In India's GDP Estimates

Subramanian asserted that his own predictions about India’s growth rate had been accurate. He pointed out, “While India’s growth has been >7%, IMF staff estimates have all been

Krishnamurthy Subramanian, the former Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) and executive director at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), criticized the IMF’s staff for consistently providing “INACCURATE” growth estimates for India during his tenure at the Washington-based financial institution.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Saturday, Subramanian highlighted the disparity between India’s actual growth rate and the IMF staff’s estimates. He stated, “During my tenure at @IMFNews (since Nov-22), IMF staff’s estimate of India’s growth rate has been consistently INACCURATE. While India’s growth has been >7%, IMF staff estimates have ALL been <7%.”

Subramanian asserted that his own predictions about India’s growth rate had been accurate. He pointed out, “While India’s growth has been >7%, IMF staff estimates have all been <7%. I’ve made accurate predictions.”

 To support his claim, Subramanian referred to his September 2021 prediction where he stated, “Expect more than 7% growth for India this decade: CEA Subramanian.” He further provided data to substantiate his statement, indicating the actual growth rates for the fiscal years: FY21-22=9.7%; FY22-23=7.0%; FY23-24 (estimate)=7.6%.

The former CEA’s remarks shed light on what he perceives as a consistent underestimation of India’s growth by the IMF staff, contrasting it with his own forecasts that have proven to be closer to the actual figures. Subramanian’s assertion suggests a discrepancy in the IMF’s assessments of India’s economic growth trajectory during his tenure, indicating a divergence between the institution’s estimates and the ground reality of India’s economic performance.