5 Big Reasons Behind Mamata Banerjee’s Bengal Downfall As Modi-Shah Turn Tables In 2026 West Bengal Polls

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely all set to dethrone the sitting West Bengal Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee, after weeks of intense campaign by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. As per the early trends, the BJP is leading on 191 seats, while the TMC is far behind, reeling on 97 seats. Vote count for the state assembly election started today, on May 4, at 8 am for the 234 constituencies. Polls were held in two phases on April 23 and 29, with several incidents of violence reported across the state. 

As the trends settle, it seems the BJP is going to make its debut in Bengal, stopping TMC from its fourth consecutive term. 

Also Read: ‘TMC Will Win After Sunset’: Mamata Banerjee Exudes Confidence As BJP Leads In Bengal

Mamata Banerjee published an emergency message to TMC workers urging them to continue guarding the election booths.

“I request the counting agents and the party candidate not to leave the voting area. Do not leave the strong room area where counts are going on. This is BJP’s plan. I have been telling this from yesterday, they are showing their counts after first 2-3 counting rounds and won’t show our results. In some places, after counting for 2-3 rounds, they have stopped counting at 100 places. In Kalyani, 7 machines were found where there vote counts don’t match. This is done by using the police force. They are torturing TMC workers, they are breaking offices. Votes are being stolen in the name of SIR. They are about 100 seats where we are leading but the info is suppressed. The ECI and central govt and police are colluding in this. But I will urge my party workers not to be disappointed. I said we will by sunset. We are all with you. Do not be scared,” the CM said.

Five Factors Behind Mamata Banerjee’s Bengal Downfall

Anti-incumbency

Mamata Banerjee-led TMC has been ruling West Bengal for the last 15 years. The party won three consecutive elections in 2011, 2016, and then in 2021. However, the party is on the verge of losing the 2026 elections, with analysts believing that fatigue had crept among the voters in the state who wanted a change.

‘Otherization of Hindus and Muslim Appeasement’

Throughout its campaign, the BJP focused on how Hindus were treated under the Mamata Banerjee rule. The saffron party believes that TMC has marginalized Hindus in the last 15 years in the state while favoring Muslims.

Rape Cases, Law and Order Problems

The state has seen a surge in violence in the last few years. A rape case of a doctor at  state’s RG Kar Medical College opened a Pandora’s box for Mamata Banerjee giving BP an opportunity to corner TMC. BJP rallied around the issue as the rape case angered the whole country. 

Corruption Charges

For years, the BJP has targeted the TMC over alleged corruption charges. Sitting MLAs of Mamata Banerjee’s cabinet have been arrested for their role in big scams. Partha Chatterjee, a senior leader and a cabinet minster was arrested in a School Service Commission (SSC) recruitment scam. Similarly, another TMC leader, Anubrata Mandal, was arrested in a cross-border cattle smuggling racket.

Fiscal Bleeding, Industries Under Strain

According to reports, over 6600 companies, including 110 listed companies, have shifted from West Bengal since 2011. Industry leaders have cited the high rates of violence and law and order problems in the state for the growing industrial strain.  The state also faces fiscal problems with the debt to GSDP rising to  37.98% for FY27.

Also Read: West Bengal Assembly Election 2026 Results May 4 LIVE UPDATES