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In the country once called the “golden bird,” gold holds a deep connection and emotional value. Any fluctuation in the price of gold stirs up strong sentiments, sending the market into a rollercoaster of emotions. The yellow metal’s prices chart is never dull—it’s colorful, always shifting, sometimes making consumers smile with a drop, and at other times, crossing the affordability line, making people think twice.
Gold’s price is known to be unpredictable, often fluctuating more than any other metal. Its rarity of price drops adds to the reason why people call it the “safe metal.” For centuries, Indians have turned to gold, using it during tough times, for gifting, and as treasured souvenirs. It’s a symbol of wealth, security, and tradition.
This constant ebb and flow in the gold market creates a whirlwind of sentiments. As prices rise or fall, the emotions surrounding the yellow metal shift, making gold not just a commodity but a reflection of the highs and lows in people’s lives.
Gold Price In Past
After reaching an all-time high in early April 2025, gold prices have dipped slightly. It hit a 52-week high of $3,167 and is now trading around $3,107. While this isn’t a significant drop, many expected gold to keep rising due to global uncertainty. The pullback could be due to selling pressure, primarily from profit booking, after a strong 12-month run. With a 35% rise over the past year, investors are likely cashing in on their gains, leading to this temporary dip. Despite this, gold remains a popular safe haven in uncertain times.
Gold Prices To Fall 40%
A bold forecast by US analyst John Mills predicts a record 38% drop in gold prices in the coming years. Currently, 24-carat gold has hit an all-time high of nearly ₹90,000 for 10 grams in India and over $3,100 globally. However, with a potential 40% decline, gold might fall to around ₹55,000 per 10 grams in India. Mills, a strategist at Morningstar, anticipates gold prices dropping to $1,820 per ounce from the current level of $3,080. If this prediction comes true, it could shake up the market and create huge opportunities for investors!
equity analyst for Morningstar, recently shared an optimistic view on gold prices, predicting higher values in the coming years. He highlights several factors that could push gold prices up, saying, “Tailwinds include a flight to safety on falling share markets, tariff worries, geopolitical instability, a weaker US dollar, and rising inflation expectations. Central bank buying is strong and ETF flows are now positive.” Mills sees these forces driving demand for the yellow metal, making it a safe haven in uncertain times.
In his report, Mills states, “Based on the futures curve, we now assume gold averages $3,170 per ounce from 2025 to 2027, up from around $2,810. We also raise our assumed mid-cycle gold price to $2,000 per ounce from 2029, up from $1,820.” This indicates a strong upward trend in gold prices over the next few years.
Mills also notes the impact of inflation on the gold industry: “Inflation has pushed up and steepened the gold industry cost curve in recent years, and this is likely to continue in the near term. Given high prices, miners are focused on maximizing production rather than cost control.” This all points to a bright future for gold investors.
Gold Price’s recent jump was driven by uncertainty, inflation, and geopolitical tensions, but several factors may now push prices lower. Here are the major reason effecting the Price-
- Increased Supply:
Gold production surged, with mining profits at $950 per ounce in Q2 2024. Global reserves grew 9%, with Australia increasing output and recycled gold rising. - Declining Demand:
Central banks, which bought 1,045 tonnes last year, may slow acquisitions. A survey shows 71% plan to reduce or maintain gold holdings. - Market Saturation:
Mergers and acquisitions in gold surged by 32% in 2024, indicating a peak market. Gold-backed ETFs also reflect patterns before past corrections. - BoFA & Goldman Sachs Predict Price Surge:
Bank of America forecasts $3,500 per ounce in two years, while Goldman Sachs expects $3,300 per ounce by year-end. The coming months will reveal gold’s next move. - Trump’s Tariff
Another factor contributing to the potential price drop is weakening demand. Central banks, which purchased 1,045 tonnes of gold last year, may slow down their buying. A recent poll revealed that 71% of central banks plan to either reduce or maintain their gold reserves. Additionally, the gold industry has seen a rise in mergers and acquisitions, up by 32% in 2024, signaling a potential peak in the market. These factors, combined with other economic shifts, suggest that gold prices may face downward pressure as demand cools and market saturation increases. Anyways, Some big financial institutions, such as Bank of America and Goldman Sachs, believe gold prices will continue to climb.
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