According to three people familiar with the situation, recent U.S. intelligence reports caution that Iran is unlikely to open the Strait of Hormuz anytime soon since its control over the most important oil route in the world gives it the only real leverage it has over the United States. According to the research, Tehran may prolong restricting the strait in order to maintain high energy costs and put pressure on US President Donald Trump to find a swift way out of the nearly five-week-long conflict, which is still unpopular with US voters.
Additionally, by demonstrating Tehran’s capacity to threaten the vital canal, the reports offer the most recent evidence that the war, which was meant to destroy Iran’s military might, may actually strengthen its influence in the region. A fifth of the world’s oil commerce passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which Trump has attempted to minimise as being difficult to reopen. He seemed to imply on Friday that he could give the order for American soldiers to reopen the tunnel. He said, “With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE,” on his Truth Social page.
However, experts have long cautioned that attempting to use force against Iran, which controls one side of the strait, might be expensive and drive the United States into a drawn-out ground conflict. “The United States gave Iran a weapon of mass disruption in an effort to stop Iran from creating a weapon of mass destruction,” stated Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, a group that works to avert violence. According to Vaez, Tehran is aware that its control over the strait “is much more potent than even a nuclear weapon.” Trump has changed his position on possible US assistance in reopening the strait. He has declared breaking Iran’s chokehold a prerequisite for a truce, but he also urged NATO allies and Gulf oil-dependent nations to take the initiative to reopen it.
A White House official, who requested anonymity, said Trump is “confident that the strait will be open very soon” and has been clear that Iran would not be allowed to regulate waterway traffic after the war. But the official noted that Trump also has said that other countries “have far more at stake in preventing this outcome” than the US. The CIA did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Iran Blocking Sea Traffic
Iran’s out-gunned Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has used various tactics to make commercial transit through the waterway too dangerous or uninsurable since Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched their war on February 28. From attacking civilian vessels and releasing mines to demanding passage fees, Iran has effectively blocked traffic through the strait, sending world oil prices soaring to multi-year highs and causing fuel shortages in countries reliant on Gulf oil and gas.
Rising energy costs risk fueling inflation in the US, posing a political liability for Trump as he faces dismal poll numbers and his Republican Party girds for mid-term congressional elections in November. Iran, the recent intelligence reports warn, is unlikely to surrender that leverage any time soon, according to the three sources. They declined to elaborate on which agencies produced the assessments. “It is certainly the case that now that Iran has tasted its power and leverage over the strait, it won’t soon give it up,” said one of the sources. All three requested anonymity to discuss the intelligence reports.
Risks To A Military Operation
Many experts say that a military operation to reopen the waterway involves considerable risks. The waterway separates Iran and Oman. It is 21 miles (33 km) wide at its narrowest point, but the shipping lane is only 2 miles (3 km) wide in both directions, making ships and troops easy targets. Even if US forces seize the southern Iranian coast and islands, the IRGC could attack them and maintain control of the waterway with drones and missiles launched from deep inside Iran, experts say. “All it takes to disrupt traffic and deter vessels from passing through is one or two drones,” said Vaez.
Iran will need to rebuild, and charging commercial shipping passage fees would be one way to raise money for restoration, according to some experts, so even after the conflict, Iran is unlikely to give up its authority to control traffic across the strait. Former CIA Director Bill Burns stated in a podcast for Foreign Affairs magazine on Thursday that Tehran “is going to look to maintain the leverage that they have rediscovered by disrupting traffic” through the strait. He stated that Iran intends to use its power to control the waterway to secure “long-term deterrence and security guarantees” in any peace agreement with the United States and to obtain “some direct material benefits,” such as collecting passage fees to finance its post-war reconstruction. “That,” he said, “sets up a really difficult negotiation right now.”
(With Inputs From Reuters)
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