The stage is set for the highly anticipated Delhi election, with the nomination process officially concluded last week. As voters prepare for polling day on February 5, major political parties, including the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Congress, have rolled out a range of promises, often referred to as ‘freebies,’ to appeal to the electorate.
AAP’s Struggle for a Third Term
Having been in power for two consecutive terms, the AAP is facing a number of challenges as it seeks a third successive term in office. These challenges include voter apathy, anti-incumbency sentiments, allegations of corruption against its leadership, questions over development, and ongoing issues with civic conditions.
Despite these obstacles, the AAP’s welfare schemes remain popular, and its leadership under Arvind Kejriwal continues to have a strong base. However, the BJP has launched an aggressive campaign targeting the party and its leader, Kejriwal, in an attempt to reclaim power in the capital after nearly three decades out of office.
Delhi Election 2025: BJP’s Hopes of a Comeback
The BJP, which has not won a Delhi election since 1993, is aiming to reverse its fortunes in the upcoming polls. Following recent successes in Maharashtra and Haryana, the party has introduced a range of populist promises designed to challenge AAP’s dominance and attract voters who may be disillusioned with the ruling party.
However, despite its efforts, the BJP faces the challenge of lacking a strong, credible face to compete with AAP’s established leadership. In addition, the party’s projected seat count still falls short of a majority.
Congress Aims for a Comeback in Delhi Election 2025, But Faces an Uphill Battle
The Congress party, with minimal representation in both the Delhi Assembly and Lok Sabha, is eager to make its presence felt in the upcoming elections. Though the party joined the INDIA bloc alliance for the national elections, its performance at the local level has been weak.
The party has fielded candidates across all 70 constituencies, but its late entry into the contest and lack of significant momentum against the AAP and BJP raises questions about its ability to make a substantial impact.
Phalodi Satta Bazar’s Projections for Delhi Elections
In addition to political analysis, projections from the Phalodi Satta Bazar—a popular betting market in Rajasthan—are providing insight into potential outcomes for the Delhi Assembly elections. At the time of the poll announcement, initial projections from the market showed AAP leading and crossing the majority mark of 36 seats in the 70-member Assembly. However, as the election date draws closer, the market has revised its predictions.
AAP’s Projected Seat Count
Initially, the Phalodi Satta Bazar estimated that AAP would win between 37 and 39 seats. However, with only two weeks left until the election, the projections have slightly improved. The latest estimates now show AAP likely to win between 39 and 41 seats, suggesting a modest increase in favorability for the ruling party.
BJP’s Revised Projection
The BJP, which is seeking to reclaim control of the capital after more than 30 years, is projected to win between 29 and 31 seats, according to the latest Phalodi Satta Bazar estimates. Although this marks an improvement from the earlier prediction of 25 to 35 seats, it still falls short of the majority threshold of 36.
Congress’ Disappointing Projections
The Congress party, which has struggled to make an impact in Delhi in recent years, received no seat projections in the latest Phalodi estimates. Earlier projections, made at the time of the poll announcement, had anticipated the Congress securing just three seats.
A Tight Race Ahead: 699 Candidates in the Fray
With the nomination process officially concluding on January 20, a total of 699 candidates will contest the upcoming Delhi Assembly elections. While both the AAP and Congress have fielded candidates for all 70 seats, the BJP is contesting 68 seats, with its alliance partners, the JD(U) and LJP (Ram Vilas), running in one seat each.
The polls will take place on February 5, and the results will be announced on February 8. With the term of the current Delhi Assembly set to end on February 23, the elections will determine the political future of the city-state.
