A large asteroid could pass close enough to Earth within the next decade that there’s a small chance it could strike the planet, according to NASA. The space rock, named 2024 YR4, measures between 130 feet and 330 feet in diameter and could potentially hit Earth in 2032, NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies reports. However, space experts indicate that the likelihood is low, with just a 1.3% chance of direct impact on December 22, 2032.
Astronomers monitoring the ATLAS telescope at the University of Hawaii first spotted the asteroid on December 27 as it was moving away from Earth. The discovery was reported to the International Astronomical Union Minor Planet Center, which confirmed that the asteroid had never been observed before. Kelly Fast, a planetary defense officer at NASA, described 2024 YR4’s orbit as “interesting.” The elongated path takes the asteroid around the sun, close to Earth’s vicinity, and then far out between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter.
“In the past, even though it’s passed through the inner solar system before, it didn’t always pass by where the Earth happened to be, where it could be picked up easily,” Fast explained, highlighting why the asteroid was only recently discovered. Due to its unique orbit, astronomers are trying to learn as much as they can about 2024 YR4 before it disappears from sight after April. It is not expected to be visible again until 2028.
Astronomers predict that 2024 YR4 will come close to Earth again at the end of 2032. Fast added that further observations are necessary to determine the likelihood of the asteroid avoiding Earth. “The worldwide community is continuing to take observations,” Fast said. “It can’t all happen in a day because the asteroid has to keep moving in the sky.”
Estimates of asteroid sizes are based on the amount of light they reflect. Current data suggests that 2024 YR4 is large enough to cause localized damage if it were to strike a populated city. Fast referenced the Tunguska asteroid, which was a similar size and flattened trees over an area of about 1,250 miles after exploding in the skies over Siberia in 1908.
NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Asteroid Watch tracks asteroids and comets that will make relatively close approaches to Earth. Congress has tasked NASA with locating asteroids larger than 450 feet in length, as these could potentially do “regional” damage if they were to strike the planet. Smaller asteroids, within a few yards in diameter, tend to disintegrate in Earth’s atmosphere and transform into fireballs.
In the coming days, five asteroids are forecast to pass near Earth. On Friday, two asteroids are expected to pass by: 2025 BR2, described as an “airplane-size” space rock about 67 feet long, will pass within 3.21 million miles of Earth, while 2015 DJ155, two-and-a-half times larger at 170 feet, will pass within 4.42 million miles. Two more asteroids, 2025 BG4 and 2025 BR7, measuring 75 and 100 feet in length respectively, are forecast to pass within 3.09 million miles and 3.58 million miles of Earth on the same day. On Sunday, 2025 BU, which is about the size of a house at 54 feet in length, is predicted to pass within 2.1 million miles of Earth.
Fast emphasized that although these asteroids are passing “relatively” close to Earth, they are still a significant distance away. The moon, for example, is fewer than 240,000 miles from Earth, and there are often asteroids passing within that distance. “Space is big, and so that’s very far away,” Fast said.
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