China’s population has fallen for the third consecutive year in 2024, marking a significant milestone in the ongoing demographic crisis facing the country. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Chinese population declined by 1.39 million over the past 12 months, bringing the total to 1.408 billion. The drop is attributed to deaths continuing to outpace births, a trend that has been evident for several years.
The Long-Term Trend
The decline in China’s population has been gradually unfolding since the 1980s. However, 2022 saw a pivotal shift when deaths outnumbered births for the first time since 1961, during the Great Leap Forward, a period marked by severe famine that led to the deaths of approximately 20 million people. Despite efforts by the government to reverse this trend, such as various incentives aimed at boosting the birthrate, the country continues to face demographic challenges.
In a recent report, the NBS acknowledged that China is grappling with a range of difficulties that are exacerbating the demographic crisis. “We must be aware that the adverse effects brought by the external environment are increasing, the domestic demands are insufficient, some enterprises have difficulties in production and operation, and the economy is still facing difficulties and challenges,” the bureau stated.
China’s Efforts to Boost Birthrates
The Chinese government has employed a mix of policies in an attempt to reverse the population decline. These measures range from social pressures, such as labeling unmarried women as “leftovers,” to stricter regulations around divorce and abortion. In addition, the government has offered financial incentives, including subsidies for childcare, in an effort to make raising children more affordable.
While there was a brief resurgence in births during the first half of 2024 in some regions, experts caution that the overall trend remains downward. The rise in marriages—up 12.4 percent year-on-year in 2023 following the end of the COVID-19 pandemic—has not been enough to counter the long-term population decline.
China’s One-Child Policy and its Aftermath
China’s one-child policy, which was enforced for several decades until its official end in 2016, has left the country with a skewed population structure. The policy, combined with a cultural preference for male children, resulted in a gender imbalance that continues to affect the population today. While the government relaxed family planning restrictions in 2021 to allow up to three children per family, factors such as high living costs in urban areas, a slowing economy, and high youth unemployment rates have made raising children less appealing to many young Chinese.
While China’s economy grew by 5 percent in 2024, meeting government projections, experts warn that GDP growth will continue to slow in the coming years. The demographic challenges facing China, including a shrinking workforce and an aging population, are expected to have a long-term impact on the economy.
East Asia’s Demographic Crisis
To address the demographic crisis, the Chinese government has introduced new measures, such as gradually raising the mandatory retirement age. Starting in 2024, the retirement age for men will increase from 60 to 63, while for women in managerial and technical positions, it will rise from 55 to 58. For other women workers, the retirement age will increase to 55.
China is not the only country in East Asia facing a demographic crisis. Neighbors such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are also grappling with population declines driven by similar factors, including low birthrates and restrictions on immigration. Furthermore, like much of East Asia, China does not permit unmarried women to access fertility treatments like in vitro fertilization (IVF), further limiting reproductive choices for many women.
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