The Iranian government has been vigorously suppressing the protests that erupted across the country, and it is now reported that a minimum of 538 people have been killed in the process, although human rights organizations fear that the number could be higher due to the blackout of the internet. Over 10,600 people have been arrested during the two-week unrest that started with the devaluation of the rial to more than 1.4 million per dollar and later turned into anti-government cries. President Trump expressed his support via social media and suggested the readiness of the U.S. to help, while at the same time, Tehran is warning the U.S. and Israel of retaliation if America intervenes.
Casualty Breakdown
The HRANA database has recorded 490 deaths among the protesters and 48 among the security forces. Local activists have verified these numbers during the communication blackout. Hospitals in Tehran reported 217 people shot dead on January 8 alone; state media’s counterfigure is 109 security losses. In Tehran, Mashhad, and Kermanshah, protests continue with a moving type of gathering, avoiding the drones and IRGC forces.
Escalating Rhetoric
Qalibaf, the Speaker of Parliament, threatened preemptive strikes on what he called “occupied territory” and U.S. bases, thereby inciting chants of “Death to America”. Even the reformist President Pezeshkian became tougher, saying that society was more important than “rioters”. The exiled prince, Reza Pahlavi, rallies the crowds by evoking the pre-1979 era.
Global Reactions
Trump is considering cyberattacks or strikes, as per sources; Netanyahu commends the “heroism” of the Iranian people. Pope Leo XIV advocates for dialogue. The U.S. forces stationed in Qatar and Bahrain remain on alert after the war that occurred in June.
Potential Scenarios
- Massacre Risk: Rights groups claim blackout will facilitate unrestrained repression.
- U.S. Action: Minor attacks might stop the killings but provoke retaliation.
- Regime Collapse: A Theocracy can be toppled by prolonged protests backed by external pressure.
- Stalemate: Sanctions are intensified, but hardliners categorize the unrest as a foreign plot.
- Supreme Leader Khamenei holds war authority; Tuesday’s White House briefing looms large.
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