The ongoing conflict in West Asia appears to be taking a dangerous turn as regional powers are adjusting their strategies in the wake of increasing casualties and global economic concerns.
At the heart of the changing conflict in the region is Saudi Arabia, which seems to be caught between security concerns and long-term geopolitical aspirations.
Reports of Pressure on the U.S.
According to a report by The New York Times, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been in touch with former U.S. President Donald Trump on multiple occasions in recent weeks.
The report claimed that the Crown Prince had told Trump that there was a need to take a more decisive approach to tackle the Iranian threat in the region. The Crown Prince had told Trump that the threat from Iran was long-term and required decisive action to tackle the growing Iranian threat.
Saudi Arabia’s Public Stand: Diplomacy First
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also been very clear on dealing with Iran, where he says it is a long term threat to our security that Tehran presents.
Israel and Saudi Arabia have indeed found common ground over the issue of Iran influence, but Riyadh has stayed out and cautious in its stances on military escalation.
The war has already started to have effects on world markets, more specifically energy supplies. Oil infrastructure has been affected by drone attacks and regional instability, and the threat of long-term supply shocks is being felt.
One of the hot spots has been the Strait of Hormuz a vital oil shipping route. Any interference in this will greatly impact the export of key manufacturers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE and the shock wave will be felt on international markets.
Strategic Saudi Arabian risks
Saudi Arabia is in a fine balancing act. As much as it wants to contain the influence of Iran, it has to take care of its own economic and security interests.
The Kingdom has already felt the effects of local attacks on its infrastructure, which show its weakness in a long-term conflict situation.
Vision 2030 Under Threat
A prolonged conflict may pose a threat to Saudi Arabia with its ambitious economic evolution programme, Vision 2030.
More stability of the region and long term investment is essential to the initiative that will help in diversifying the economy and decrease reliance on oil. A long term war would interfere with development, scare off investors and put financial pressure.
The policy of Saudi Arabia is indicative of a larger regional quandary a balancing of short-term security interests and long term economic and political objectives.
The next few weeks may turn out to be निरrणctive not only to the West Asian region, but also to the world economy in general, with the world markets in the nervous system and the threat of a wider war looming.
