As the UK marks five years since Brexit, a major public opinion survey has revealed a significant preference among voters for prioritizing trade with the European Union over the United States. This shift highlights mounting pressure on political leaders, particularly Prime Minister Keir Starmer, to strengthen economic links with Europe in response to ongoing economic challenges.
The extensive poll, surveying nearly 15,000 people across England, Scotland, and Wales, found that voters in every constituency favored forging closer arrangements with the EU. This trend extended even to traditionally Eurosceptic regions, reflecting a broad consensus on the need for a more pragmatic approach to trade policy.
The findings come amidst renewed discussions about the economic impact of Brexit. Under the current trade arrangements, agreed during Boris Johnson’s tenure, the UK operates outside the EU single market and customs union. This has led to costly delays and bureaucratic barriers for businesses, along with restrictions on UK citizens working within the EU.
Economists and trade experts agree that these obstacles have stifled economic growth. The UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) has taken a noticeable hit, with small businesses particularly burdened by increased trade frictions.
Recent statements from key government figures have hinted at a potential shift in strategy. The UK Treasury has acknowledged the adverse effects of Brexit and expressed a commitment to reducing trade barriers with the EU. Discussions are underway about joining the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean (PEM) convention, a set of rules facilitating tariff-free trade by standardizing the sourcing of parts and ingredients.
This newfound openness to exploring enhanced EU ties marks a significant departure from past reluctance to engage closely with Europe, largely driven by fears of alienating Brexit supporters.
The poll also highlights a stark divergence in public sentiment on trade priorities. While 46% of respondents identified the EU as the government’s top trade focus, only 21% favored prioritizing the U.S. The re-election of Donald Trump, who has signaled a protectionist trade agenda, further underscores the challenges of pursuing transatlantic deals.
Notably, support for stronger EU trade ties is even higher among Labour supporters and key swing voters. Constituencies that Labour is targeting in upcoming elections, such as Ribble Valley and Stoke-on-Trent, also lean heavily toward prioritizing EU trade.
The push for closer ties with the EU reflects a growing recognition that addressing post-Brexit economic stagnation requires pragmatic trade solutions. Analysts argue that fostering EU trade partnerships is essential for driving growth, lowering consumer prices, and enhancing business competitiveness in an increasingly protectionist global environment.
While political sensitivities around Brexit remain, there is growing evidence that a closer economic relationship with the EU could resonate positively with voters. As the UK navigates its post-Brexit reality, prioritizing trade with its closest and most significant partner may prove not only economically beneficial but also politically advantageous.
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