Crude oil prices could fall below $60 a barrel by the end of 2025, driven by a surge in global supply and sluggish demand, according to a new outlook from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Speaking at the Commodity Market Insights event, Premasish Das, Executive Director at S&P, projected that crude could settle in the $55–$60 range by year-end, barring major geopolitical disruptions. The key reason for this downward trend is the monthly rollback of OPEC+’s 2.2 million barrels per day production cut, which began in April 2025.
Supply Increases, While Global Demand Falters
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) had introduced the production cuts in 2022 to stabilize prices, but as those curbs unwind, supply is once again flooding the market. This led to prices briefly dipping to around $60 per barrel earlier in the year before recovering to approximately $70. However, global demand remains weak, largely due to an economic slowdown in China, the world’s top oil importer. The imbalance between surging supply and soft demand sets the stage for a likely decline in crude prices through the rest of the year.
Geopolitical Flashpoints Could Alter Outlook
While the forecast leans bearish, Das warned of potential geopolitical risks that could reverse the trend. A further escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict, or a sudden move by OPEC+ to reintroduce cuts, could push prices back to $70–$75 per barrel. On a brighter note, India’s oil demand is expected to remain strong, with consumption projected to rise by 110,000–120,000 barrels per day in the second half of 2025.
With oil markets on edge, investors and policymakers will need to watch supply chains, geopolitical developments, and Asian demand trends closely in the coming months.
