What To Expect From Stock Market Today? Sensex, Nifty 50 Rides On Global Markets and India–EU Trade Optimism

Stock Market Today, Outlook : Markets Look to Bounce Back After Volatile Friday as Gift Nifty Signals Positive Start

The markets, which experienced their worst day of the week on Friday due to international tensions and continuous selling by foreign investors, are now showing signs of recovery. The Sensex declined by 769.67 points, or 0.94%, to close at 81,537.70, while the Nifty 50 fell 241.25 points, or 0.95%, to end at 25,048.65, reminding investors that market volatility remains very much in play.

Trading desks got a brief breather on Monday, January 26, as markets remained closed for Republic Day 2026, giving participants time to reassess their positions. Looking ahead to Tuesday, the market outlook appears cautiously optimistic. Gift Nifty is indicating a positive opening, supported by overnight gains on Wall Street and relative stability in global markets. However, the road ahead is unlikely to be smooth, as major events and policy announcements are expected to keep traders alert and ready to react.

What Is Shaping The Stock Market Today?

Key Market Triggers This Week

• India–US trade deal developments: Any clarity or breakthrough could impact export-oriented sectors and overall market sentiment.

• Union Budget 2026 expectations: Anticipation around fiscal spending, tax measures, and sectoral allocations may drive pre-Budget positioning.

• US Federal Reserve policy meeting: Signals on interest rates and liquidity will influence global risk appetite and capital flows.

• Q3 corporate earnings: Stock-specific action will hinge on earnings performance and management commentary.

• Geopolitical developments (including Greenland): Rising global tensions continue to inject uncertainty into risk assets.

• Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) flows: Sustained inflows or outflows will remain a key driver of market direction.

• Crude oil price movement: Fluctuations in oil prices affect inflation expectations and India’s trade balance.

• Rupee trajectory: Currency movement impacts import costs, corporate earnings, and FII sentiment.

• Donald Trump’s tariff policies: Any escalation or rollback could alter global trade dynamics and emerging market flows.

• Global and domestic macro data: Inflation, growth, and manufacturing data will shape expectations around policy decisions.

Global Market Cues

Asian Markets

• Mixed performance: Asian equities traded unevenly after US President Donald Trump signalled higher tariffs on South Korea.

• Japan: Nikkei 225 fell 0.24%, while Topix declined 0.31%, reflecting cautious sentiment.

• South Korea: Kospi slipped 0.36%, though Kosdaq outperformed with a 1.41% gain.

• Hong Kong: Hang Seng futures pointed to a higher opening, offering some regional support.

Wall Street Overnight Performance

• Positive close: US markets ended higher, extending gains for the fourth straight session.

• Dow Jones: Rose 313.69 points (0.64%) to 49,412.40, supported by cyclical stocks.

• S&P 500: Added 34.62 points (0.50%) to 6,950.23.

• Nasdaq Composite: Gained 100.11 points (0.43%) to 23,601.36, led by select tech names.

Stock Highlights

• Apple: Jumped 2.97%, outperforming peers.

• Microsoft: Gained 0.93%, continuing its steady uptrend.

• Nvidia: Slipped 0.64% amid profit-taking.

• AMD: Declined 3.22%, underperforming the sector.

• Tesla: Fell 3.09%, weighing on auto and EV sentiment.

Gift Nifty Today

• Positive opening signal: Gift Nifty was trading around 25,160, nearly 80–81 points above the previous Nifty futures close, indicating a firm start for Indian markets.

Currency & Commodity Update

Dollar

• Dollar weakness: The Dollar Index slipped to 97.05, hovering near a four-month low.

• Euro: Steady at $1.1878.

• Sterling: Trading around $1.3678.

Gold & Silver Prices

• Gold: Comex gold fell 1.16% to $5,023.60 per ounce.

• Silver: Comex silver plunged 6.41% to $108.095 per ounce after hitting record highs in the previous session.

Biggest Highlight Of Stock Market Today

From Tariffs to Trade Deals: Global Signals Turn Supportive for India

Just when global trade worries threatened to dominate the narrative, a couple of positive developments have given markets a welcome reason to cheer. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that the United States plans to reassess its 25% tariff increase on Indian products, a move that directly impacts India–US trade relations. This signal comes after India sharply reduced its purchases of Russian oil, a step that appears to have opened the door for a possible rollback of the levy. A reduction in tariffs would offer significant relief to Indian exporters and help maintain stable trade ties between the two countries.

Meanwhile, India and the European Union have concluded their long-pending Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations, with a formal announcement expected soon. The deal is likely to deepen economic cooperation, improve market access, and boost bilateral trade and investment flows. Taken together, these developments suggest that some global economic headwinds may be easing, creating a more supportive backdrop for Indian markets while keeping investor optimism cautious but constructive.

Stock Market Today Prediction

Sensex Outlook & Technical Levels

• Weekly performance: The Sensex declined 2.4% last week, reflecting sustained selling pressure.

• Trend: The near-term structure remains cautious to bearish, as the index continues to trade below key short-term averages.

• Support (81,000 – 81,100): This zone is acting as a critical cushion; a hold here could invite selective dip-buying.

• Resistance (82,000 – 82,100): Any recovery attempt is likely to face selling pressure near this band.

• Overall view: Analysts caution that weakness may persist below 82,000, with accumulation advised only if strong buying emerges at support.

Nifty 50 Outlook

Technical View

• Weekly performance: Nifty 50 slipped 2.5%, forming a strong bearish candle on the weekly chart.

• 200-DMA breach: The index has fallen below the 200-day moving average at 25,140, weakening the broader trend.

• Momentum indicator: The MACD sell crossover confirms negative momentum in the near term.

Key Levels

• Immediate support (24,950 – 25,000): A crucial psychological and technical support zone.

• Downside risk (24,800 – 24,600): A break below 25,000 could accelerate selling toward these levels.

• Resistance (25,200 – 25,300): Short-term hurdle where pullbacks may face selling.

• Major hurdle (25,500 – 25,600): Only a decisive move above this zone can trigger a meaningful recovery.