The protests in Iran against the authorities have already lasted for three weeks. They were initially caused by the total collapse of the economy and later on by the demand that the government be changed. The protests are nationwide and are going on in all 31 provinces. The protests are taking place at a time when the internet is blacked out across the country. President Donald Trump has been updated about the military options and has warned of US intervention if the security forces kill more demonstrators. He said that America is “locked and loaded,” ready to strike the oppressors. Death tolls continue to rise, with at least 217 deaths in just the hospitals of Tehran, and thousands arrested. The IRGC has opened fire with live ammunition on the crowds.
Escalation Dynamics
The government crackdowns have not been able to suppress the protests. Millions of people have risked the blackout since January 8 and are out on the streets. Reports from human rights groups indicate 2,600 people have been detained, and there have been mass shootings in Kermanshah, among other cities. The regime calls the demonstrators “terrorists,” sends in elite forces, and allows a possible massacre under the cover of communications. The exile, Reza Pahlavi, calls for global support, asserting that it is the biggest uprising since 1979.
Trump’s Military Options
A Tuesday briefing talks about airstrikes on security sites, cyber operations, and sanctions, without including troops on the ground. Trump was supportive when he posted: “I am looking FREE,” while at the same time threatening hard hits if bloodshed moves on. Iran has threatened to take revenge on bases in the U.S. and Israel.
What Could Happen
- U.S. Airstrikes: they could deter killings, but at the same time, they could lead to missile barrages, oil disruptions, or attacks by a proxy.
- Cyber/Sanctions: the regime will be weakened without an invasion; the protesters will be empowered through smuggled tech.
- Regime Rally: the external threat will unite hardliners, who will portray unrest as a foreign plot.
- Protest Decline or Increase: if intervention is perceived as discrediting the movement, it may cause a revolution, especially if Tehran is taken down.
- Tehran is speaking of a “severe response,” while the outcome will depend on Trump’s decision on Tuesday.
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