The New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), a little-known earthquake hotspot in the Midwest United States, could be the site of one of the deadliest natural disasters in American history. This region covers parts of northeastern Arkansas, southeastern Missouri, western Tennessee, western Kentucky, and southern Illinois. While the area experiences hundreds of small tremors every year, scientists warn it is overdue for a more destructive quake.
According to a report by the Geological Society of America, if a magnitude 7.6 earthquake strikes the NMSZ, it could cause losses of up to $43 billion. Other studies have predicted that more than 80,000 lives could be lost in such a disaster. Records show that the last major series of quakes happened between December 1811 and February 1812, when three earthquakes of more than magnitude 7.0 shook the region. Since it has been 214 years since those events, experts fear the risk of another massive earthquake is rising.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that there is a 25 to 40 per cent chance of a magnitude 6.0 earthquake hitting the NMSZ within the next 50 years. What makes this situation more dangerous is that buildings and infrastructure in the Midwest are not designed to withstand powerful quakes. Unlike California, which sits on the San Andreas Fault and has stricter construction rules, states like Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennessee have structures built mainly to resist tornadoes.
Danielle Peltier, a science communication fellow with the Geological Society of America, explained that even a magnitude 6.0 quake could cause far more destruction in the Midwest than in California. Bridges, roads, towers, and power lines would be at high risk of collapse, and the effects could spread far beyond the region, potentially reaching as far as the East Coast.
Although experts have been warning about earthquakes in California for decades, the NMSZ has remained under the radar. Now, both local and federal authorities are preparing disaster response plans, but scientists caution that time may be running out.
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Shivam Verma is a journalist with over three years of experience in digital newsrooms. He currently works at NewsX, having previously worked for Firstpost and DNA India. A postgraduate diploma holder in Integrated Journalism from the Asian College of Journalism, Chennai, Shivam focuses on international affairs, diplomacy, defence, and politics. Beyond the newsroom, he is passionate about football—both playing and watching—and enjoys travelling to explore new places and cuisines.