A defunct NASA satellite launched more than a decade ago to study Earth’s radiation environment is expected to reenter the planet’s atmosphere this week. The spacecraft, known as Van Allen Probe A, has been in orbit since 2012 and is now nearing the end of its orbital life.
According to predictions from the United States Space Force, the satellite is projected to plunge through Earth’s atmosphere at around 7:45 p.m. EDT on March 10, though experts note that the timing could shift as tracking data continues to be refined.
Uncontrolled Reentry of NASA Satellite Expected
The spacecraft weighs approximately 1,323 pounds and its return to Earth will occur as an uncontrolled reentry, meaning the space agency has no capability to guide or steer the probe as it descends.
Officials at NASA say that most of the satellite is expected to burn up during its high-speed journey through the atmosphere. However, some parts may survive the intense heat.
In a statement, the agency said, “some components are expected to survive re-entry.”
Despite this possibility, NASA stressed that the chances of anyone being harmed are extremely small.
“The risk of harm coming to anyone on Earth is low – approximately 1 in 4,200,” NASA said. “NASA and Space Force will continue to monitor the re-entry and update predictions.”
Is NASA Satellite Re-entry Worrying?
Although such events can attract public attention, the return of defunct satellites and other space debris to Earth is not unusual. Objects such as out-of-service satellites, spent rocket parts and fragments of debris regularly fall back toward the planet once their missions end.
The European Space Agency notes that objects of this type reenter Earth’s atmosphere almost daily.
For the Van Allen Probe A, current predictions also include a timing uncertainty of plus or minus 24 hours, according to the Space Force.
Purpose of NASA Satellite Van Allen Probe A
The spacecraft was launched alongside its twin, Van Allen Probe B, on August 30, 2012.
Together, the two probes were designed to explore regions of intense radiation surrounding Earth known as the Van Allen radiation belts. These belts consist of high-energy charged particles trapped by Earth’s magnetic field, forming enormous doughnut-shaped zones encircling the planet.
The twin-satellite mission was created to study how solar activity influences the radiation environment around Earth, a factor that can affect satellites, astronauts and communication systems.
Although the mission was initially scheduled to last around two years, both probes continued operating far longer than planned. The satellites remained active until 2019, gathering valuable scientific data used by researchers studying space weather.
After being deactivated, the spacecraft stayed in orbit but slowly began descending. Over time, atmospheric drag gradually reduced its speed and altitude, setting the stage for the current reentry event.
Why the NASA Satellite Is Falling Back to Earth
Satellites cannot remain in orbit forever. Eventually, several forces cause them to lose altitude and fall back toward the planet.
Recent years of stronger solar activity have warmed and expanded the upper atmosphere, increasing friction on orbiting spacecraft and accelerating their descent.
Experts say the satellite is now entering the final phase of orbital decay, leading to its expected atmospheric reentry.
Zubair Amin is a Senior Journalist at NewsX with over seven years of experience in reporting and editorial work. He has written for leading national and international publications, including Foreign Policy Magazine, Al Jazeera, The Economic Times, The Indian Express, The Wire, Article 14, Mongabay, News9, among others. His primary focus is on international affairs, with a strong interest in US politics and policy. He also writes on West Asia, Indian polity, and constitutional issues. Zubair tweets at zubaiyr.amin
