The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below normal rainfall for the monsoon this year. According to the IMD, the monsoon will provide rainfall amounts of about 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA); therefore, the forecast is a below average one.
This forecast raises concerns because the monsoon accounts for approximately 70% of total rainfall for the country and plays a critical role in agriculture, rural livelihoods and water supply.
Monsoon Impact: El Nino Likely To Affect Rainfall Pattern
One of the primary reasons for the current weak monsoon forecast is the anticipated development of El Nino conditions. According to IMD officials, the shifting weather pattern indicates that El Nino conditions will likely develop after June.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra (IMD Director General) discusses the situation saying, “El Nino is likely to happen after June,” which can create a possibility of less rainfall.
Monsoon Concerns: Rainfall May Be Uneven Across Regions
Experts have also warned that the monsoon could be not only weak, but that some areas will receive substantial amounts of rain; while others may experience shortages.
Private Forecaster (Skymet) has indicated the same by stating that the amount of rain in the S.W. coast in June could be projected at 90-95% of avg. LPA. “Rainfall distribution will be less than normal of 90 – 95%.”
Monsoon Economy Link: Agriculture And Inflation At Risk
Weak monsoons have significant implications for agriculture because a large part of India’s cropland depends on rainfall. If there is insufficient rainfall or if the distribution of rainfall is irregular, crops such as rice, pulses and oilseeds will be negatively affected.
Economists are also worrying about the impact of weaker monsoons on inflation. A decline in rainfall will lower crop production, raise food prices and reduce income levels for rural farmers. One economist stated there would likely be ‘generally higher inflation if the monsoon remains weak.’
Monsoon Relief Factor: Indian Ocean Dipole May Help Later
Currently, meteorologists are optimistic that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could emerge later in the season; this would mean more rain and less of an influence from El Nino.
Weather experts indicate that Mrutyunjay Mohapatra recently stated, “Positive IOD conditions are expected and will assist monsoon,” implying that improved conditions or wetter than normal conditions should occur/during the latter half of this year’s season.
Monsoon Outlook: First Below-Normal Season In Years Raises Alarm
If the forecasts provided by the IMD are accurate, it would represent the first below-normal monsoon they’ve recorded for almost three seasons. The forecast will be updated later this month so we should have a clearer picture at that point in time.
Meanwhile, all three of these groups (policymakers, farmers, and markets) have been put on notice due to the below-normal rate of rain predicted for this year’s total monsoon development. Since a very large portion of the country’s economy relies on rainfall, if a decline occurs in the rainfall rate provided by the impending monsoon; it will severely impact the economic activity that is due to close ties with agricultural production throughout the nation.
Khalid Qasid is a media enthusiast with a strong interest in documentary filmmaking. He holds a Master’s degree in Convergent Journalism from AJK MCRC. He has also written extensively on esports at Sportsdunia. Currently, he covers world and general news at NewsX Digital.
