A new report from a global team of scientists has issued a serious warning: if we keep pumping out carbon dioxide at the same rate, the world’s carbon budget for staying under 1.5°C of warming will be gone in just over three years.
The carbon budget is basically the total amount of CO2 the planet can handle before temperatures rise past a certain point. In this case, it’s 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels — a goal that nearly every country agreed to during the 2015 Paris climate summit.
Running out of that budget doesn’t mean we’ll instantly hit 1.5°C, but it does mean we’re on a very fast track to passing it unless we cut emissions drastically and quickly.
2°C Limit Could Also Be Crossed by 2048
The study, called “Indicators of Global Climate Change,” was just published in the journal Earth System Science Data. It also warns that if things don’t change, the carbon budget for keeping the world under 2°C of warming could be gone by 2048.
Right now, the world is releasing about 53 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent every year, mainly from burning fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas — and also from deforestation and other human-driven sources.
We’re Already Feeling the Heat
In the last 10 years — from 2015 to 2024 — Earth’s average temperature was 1.24°C higher than it was before the industrial revolution began. Scientists say that 1.22°C of that warming came directly from human activity.
And 2024 has already made history: it’s now the hottest year ever recorded, and the first full year where the average global temperature was more than 1.5°C above the old baseline from 1850–1900.
But just hitting 1.5°C once doesn’t mean we’ve completely failed. What really matters is if global temperatures stay that high for decades, which would mean a permanent breach of the Paris Agreement’s target.
More Heat Likely in the Years Ahead
And things aren’t looking too hopeful. Just last month, the World Meteorological Organization said there’s a 70% chance that global average temperatures between 2025 and 2029 will go past the 1.5°C mark.
So we’re not just flirting with that limit anymore — we’re getting really close to crossing it for good.
The Cuts We Need Are Bigger Than Before
Back in 2022, the UN’s climate panel (IPCC) said the world needed to cut emissions by 43% by 2030 (compared to 2019 levels) to have a decent shot at staying under 1.5°C.
But in a March 2024 interview, IPCC Chair Jim Skea told PTI that target is now out of date. “The 43 percent reduction target is now outdated due to a lack of action,” he said — meaning we now need to cut even more than that if we want to avoid the worst.
This latest report is another big wake-up call. If we don’t start seriously cutting emissions soon, we’re going to run out of time — not just for the 1.5°C target, but even for the 2°C limit.
And once those thresholds are passed, we’re likely to see more intense heatwaves, rising sea levels, stronger storms, and major changes to how people live, grow food, and survive across the world.
