T20 World Cup 2026: New Zealand’s emphatic 61-run victory over Sri Lanka on Wednesday, Feb 25 has sent shockwaves through Group 2 of the Super 8s, leaving Pakistan’s semi-final dreams hanging by a very thin thread. While England have already secured the first semi-final spot from the group with four points, the battle for the second position has now become a mathematical nightmare for the “Men in Green.”
With New Zealand climbing to three points and boasting a formidable Net Run Rate (NRR) of +3.050, the Salman Ali Agha-led Pakistan side find itself in a precarious third place with just one point from two matches. As the tournament heads into its final Super 8 fixtures, here is how Pakistan can still-make the final four.
Scenario 1: The Only Realistic Path
For Pakistan to qualify, they must first handle their own business by defeating Sri Lanka in their final match on February 28. However, a win alone will only take them to three points. The real drama lies in the match between New Zealand and England on February 27.
Pakistan need England to beat New Zealand by a massive margin to significantly dent the Kiwis’ NRR. If New Zealand finish on three points and Pakistan reach three points, the second semi-finalist will be decided by NRR. Given New Zealand’s current +3.050 compared to Pakistan’s -0.461, Pakistan would likely need to beat Sri Lanka by over 100 runs while hoping England crush New Zealand by a similar distance.
Scenario 2: The Direct Points Route
While mathematically possible, this is highly unlikely. If New Zealand lose their final match against England, they remain on three points. If Pakistan then beat Sri Lanka, both teams will be tied on three points, reverting once again to the NRR tiebreaker mentioned above.
The path to the semi-finals is no longer in Pakistan’s hands. If New Zealand defeat England on Friday, they will move to five points, officially eliminating Pakistan and Sri Lanka before the two sides even take the field for their final game. For Pakistani fans, the equation is simple but stressful: they must become England’s biggest supporters on Friday and pray for a record-breaking victory in their own final outing.
