Reaffirming Taiwan’s fierce defence of sovereignty, President Lai Ching-te declared that the island would not allow “China’s hand to reach into” the island, in the light of new military pressure from Beijing. In his New Year’s message on January 1, 2026, Lai described the year 2026 as “a critical year,” exhorting the nation to assert its determination against all enlarging threats, especially after China’s live-fire drills around the island, which he termed “extortion.”
Escalating Tensions
On December 31, 2025, China wrapped up a month-long military display that included the firing of missiles, the movement of jets, and the deployment of warships, in what the Chinese government called a demonstration of the country’s strong opposition to the sale of arms to Taiwan by the US and the latter’s signalling of an intention to get involved in the regional tensions. In its public relations campaign, China has labelled Lai as a “separatist warmonger” while the Taiwanese president has countered: “We need to install deterrents which would make a Taiwan that is safer to live in,” and he has promised 5% of the country’s GDP to the military over the years 2026 to 2033 despite delays in the legislature.
Defense Reforms
Lai’s resumption of courts for soldiers who betray their country, investigating even ex-officials of his own party, is part of the plan he has drawn up for the weakening of the Chinese influence over Taiwan. Two-thirds of the total espionage amount involves the military, he points out. Also, he wishes “whole-of-society resilience” against encroachment of subversion in institutions, and he proclaims that China is using polarisation as a tool by which to attack the Taiwanese society, which he labels as the strongest weapon of the latter.
Global Context
US-China meetings are approaching, and Taiwan is the main topic; Lai is uniting democracies for the stability of the Indo-Pacific and is not only rejecting but also challenging Beijing’s claims to a part of Taiwan that it has not owned since the war in 1949. Polls show that 60% of the people support the current situation, but Lai cautions that being too comfortable might lead to an invasion.
Risks Ahead
According to experts, a “Venezuela-style” operation targeting the leadership of Xi would be a highly risky yet realistic option; meanwhile, the buying of arms and legacies of defiance are drawing the ire of sites like Beijing, which is on Tsai Ing-wen’s side amid the great cross-strait dynamics of 2026.
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