The vote counting process for the 2026 Assembly elections already started at 8 AM in five important states. The exercise which began after voting ended will identify the political direction of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry where parties have maintained their tense state since voting ended.
The initial hours of the election results will establish early voting patterns which will determine whether Mamata Banerjee and her party TMC will continue in power or the BJP will succeed in defeating her to establish their first state government. The outcome of the election will depend on five main factors which include both voter sentiment and important political partnerships.
SIR Voter Row Fuels Tight BJP vs TMC Battle
The Bengal elections were conducted in two separate voting periods and achieved an unprecedented voter turnout of approximately 92.5%. Exit polls showed a tightly contested election result, but most polls provided the BJP with a minor electoral advantage.
The election process experienced abnormal voting conditions when two different types of voting systems operated in two separate polling locations. The Election Commission executed a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) process for voter list verification during multiple months which resulted in the removal of approximately 91 lakh voter entries.
The removals included approximately 27 lakh names which people continue to contest at tribunals that will require extended time for their hearings to take place. Bengal executed its processes through different methods than other states because it established stricter verification standards and used “logical discrepancies” and micro observers for thorough monitoring. Mamata Banerjee vehemently opposed this procedure because she accused the Election Commission of supporting the BJP through its actions.
She claimed that the massive voter turnout served as a citizen protest which she believed would help her political party. The BJP backed the voting changes which the party said had successfully eliminated unlawful Bangladeshi immigrants from the voter rolls. The party asserted that the elevated voter turnout demonstrated public dissatisfaction with the TMC government.
Mamata Targets 200+ Seats, TMC Focuses on Stronghold and Vote Bank
A day after voting Mamata Banerjee announced that her party would secure more than 200 seats which might reach 230 seats because the majority requirement stands at 148 seats. TMC leaders establish their seat target at 200 seats which would provide them with a stable government while preventing BJP from acquiring their MLAs through defections.
The 2021 elections resulted in TMC winning 215 seats after receiving approximately 48% of the votes while BJP achieved 77 seats with more than 38% vote support.
The TMC needs to preserve its control over South Bengal which includes the 111 essential seats that exist in the Presidency area. The party also needs to maintain its support from Muslim voters across the state.
Mamata vs Suvendu: High-Stakes Battle in Bhabanipur and Nandigram
This election is being called the biggest fight of Mamata Banerjee’s career, as she is known for her strong and aggressive politics. If she wins a fourth term, it will boost her position as a major Opposition leader in national politics.
In her Bhabanipur seat in South Kolkata, Mamata is facing a tough challenge from Suvendu Adhikari, who was once her close aide but is now a BJP leader and Leader of Opposition. The seat also saw drama on polling day, with Mamata accusing central forces and the Election Commission of troubling her party workers.
Mamata has been winning Bhabanipur since 2011. Suvendu is also contesting from Nandigram, where he had defeated her by around 1,900 votes in 2021.
After losing Nandigram, Mamata later won Bhabanipur in a by-election by a big margin of over 58,000 votes. However, BJP feels confident after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where TMC’s lead in Bhabanipur dropped to just over 8,000 votes.
BJP Targets 150 Seats, Eyes Power Shift in Bengal
The ongoing election marks Mamata Banerjee’s most important political contest because she maintains her reputation as a fighter who uses forceful political methods. Her fourth election victory would establish her as a central figure in national opposition politics while creating her presence as an active opposition leader.
Mamata faces her most difficult election battle against Suvendu Adhikari who formerly worked as her assistant but now serves as a BJP opposition leader. Election day developed into a theatrical event when Mamata accused central security forces and the Election Commission of causing difficulties for her party members.
Mamata has been winning Bhabanipur since 2011. Suvendu is also contesting from Nandigram, where he had defeated her by around 1,900 votes in 2021.
Mamata lost Nandigram but achieved a significant victory in the Bhabanipur by-election when she won the election by more than 58000 votes. The BJP shows their confidence about the 2024 Lok Sabha elections because TMC lost their lead in Bhabanipur which dropped to 8000 votes.
Congress Goes Solo, Left Bets on Youth to Make Comeback
The Left alliance with the CPI(M) and Congress failed to win any seats during the 2021 elections which they had fought as partners. The Congress party aims to win seats through its current election campaign which targets Muslim voters in Malda, Murshidabad, and Uttar Dinajpur.
The party uses Rahul Gandhi’s rallies to reach Muslim voters who traditionally support TMC. The Communist Party of India Marxist party, which ruled Bengal for 34 years, attempts to regain control after its 2011 defeat against Mamata Banerjee.
The Left alliance reestablishes its electoral partnership with the Indian Secular Front (ISF). The CPI(M) party selects young leaders such as Minakshi Mukherjee and Kalatan Dasgupta and Dipsita Dhar and Mayukh Biswas and Afreen Begum to create new organizational energy.
Smaller Parties May Split Muslim Votes, Impact TMC Chances
The current Assembly only has one Opposition MLA who is not a member of the BJP and that person is ISF chief Naushad Siddiqui who won the Bhangar seat in South 24 Parganas. The ISF intends to expand its presence to additional Muslim-majority regions during this election period.
Suspended TMC leader Humayun Kabir created media attention when he revealed his plan to build a Babri Masjid replica in Murshidabad. He now operates his political organization Aam Janata Unnayan Party AJUP which he uses to run for multiple electoral positions.
The AIMIM party which Asaduddin Owaisi leads is participating in elections across various districts.
The TMC will lose support in tight races because smaller parties will split Muslim votes between themselves.
Also Read: Four States, Four Patterns: Decoding Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala And Assam’s Voting Style
Manisha Chauhan is a passionate journalist with 3 years of experience in the media industry, covering everything from trending entertainment buzz and celebrity spotlights to thought-provoking book reviews and practical health tips. Known for blending fresh perspectives with reader-friendly writing, she creates content that informs, entertains, and inspires. When she’s not chasing the next viral story, you’ll find her diving into a good book or exploring new wellness trends.
