We tend to monitor climate change by measuring temperatures across the world over time. It has assisted us in following increased temperatures and weather conditions.
However, mere temperature measurements could sometimes conceal the larger picture by covering up short-term natural fluctuations.
There’s another, clearer way to understand what’s really happening: measure how much heat the Earth absorbs and how much it releases. Think of it like a bank account—if more money comes in than goes out, your balance grows.
The Balance Is Broken
Our planet’s energy budget is out of balance. Badly.
Current studies show that the rate at which Earth is accumulating more energy than it’s dissipating has accelerated by more than twice in the past two decades.
In the early 2000s, Earth’s energy imbalance stood at 0.6 watts per square metre.
Today it’s at about 1.3 watts per square metre. That’s a huge leap, and a clear sign that Earth is warming up much faster than many climate models predicted.
This increasing heat imbalance means that the world is accumulating more energy close to its surface.
And if it keeps going at this rate, the effects of global warming may hit sooner and harder than thought.
Why Is This Occurring?
Greenhouse gases, such as the carbon dioxide emitted through the burning of coal, oil, and gas, warm the air. People have added them to the atmosphere at over two trillion tonnes since the beginning of the industrial age. That’s enough to cover the globe with a thick, invisible blanket that traps more heat.”.
All this excess heat simply heats the air around us, it goes into the oceans. Oceans, in reality, are taking in nearly 90% of the world’s excess heat, and they have an enormous capacity to store it.
Earth loses heat naturally back to space by the way clouds, snow, and ice reflect the sun and by infrared radiation. But this process of cooling is finding it hard to cope.
A Faster Growth Than Expected
Climate researchers monitor the world’s energy streams with two primary methods: satellite sensors that measure energy coming into and escaping from the Earth system, and tens of thousands of ocean floats recording temperature fluctuations.
Both systems witness the same phenomenon: The energy imbalance of the Earth is accelerating rapidly.
Here’s the kicker: the increase is happening twice as fast as our best climate models predicted. That means the planet could be warming more quickly—and more intensely—than we’ve planned for.
What’s Behind the Sudden Shift?
Scientists are still working on the full answer, but cloud patterns seem to play a big role.
Clouds have a way of cooling the Earth by reflecting the sun.
But over the last few years, something’s changed: less sunlight, thicker clouds, and more thin, patchy ones that reflect less heat.
Some believe it might be related to tighter restrictions on the shipping of fuel that cut back on sulfur emissions—a contaminant that, ironically, caused clouds to be whiter.
There is also the potential that these changes are caused by natural variations such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
But perhaps most concerning is that global warming itself is causing the cloud changes, a feedback mechanism that would exacerbate it.
What This Means for Our Future
It’s not just hotter days. If this energy imbalance persists, we might be in for more severe, more frequent heatwaves, longer and more severe droughts, more intense rainstorms, and more severe ocean heatwaves.
And it’s not a one-time blip. Two of the newest models that most closely mirror what has taken place on Earth also predict more intense warming over the long term.
That is extremely alarming for future decades if we don’t cut back greenhouse gas emissions dramatically.
Our Eyes in the Sky Are Under Threat
The finest instruments we possess for observing Earth’s energy balance are satellites.
They provide us with early warnings of trends toward heating buildups—typically a decade before we observe the consequences on land or at sea.
These essential systems are not secure, however. Budget reductions and changing priorities in the United States are jeopardizing climate satellite missions.
If we were to lose these monitoring abilities, we would be flying in the dark toward an increasingly dangerous climate future.
The Way Forward
The Solution to the problem is that we need to stop burning fossil fuels and stop the continuation of activities that emit greenhouse gases, like forest cutting.
At the same time, we need to continue to develop, even improve, our ability to track what is happening, especially from space.
But with strong realities and strict action, we can still make intelligent choices to protect our future.
