Elon Musk recently sparked a debate online around the fact that India’s fertility rate has dropped below the replacement level. Citing recent figures shared online, the Tesla and SpaceX chief said that the country’s birth rate has already fallen below the replacement threshold, particularly among its more educated population. India, currently the world’s most populous nation with an estimated population of around 147.6 crore people, is witnessing a significant demographic transition as the fertility rate declines.
Elon Musk On India’s Falling Birth Rate
Responding to data shared by AF Post on X, Musk commented about the decline in fertility levels across the country.
“India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement. Among those most educated, India’s birth rate fell below replacement many years ago.”
According to the 2024 Sample Registration System (SRS) report, India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined from 2.1 to 1.9 children per woman. The latest figure places the country below the replacement fertility benchmark of 2.1.
Replacement fertility refers to the average number of children a woman must have for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next, assuming there is no migration.
The report shows that only six states continue to record fertility rates above the replacement level, which include:
Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand
Delhi recorded the country’s lowest fertility rate, with an average of 1.2 births per woman.
Demographers generally consider a TFR of 2.1 as the level necessary to maintain a stable population over the long term.
Experts Warn of Long-Term Population Challenges
When fertility remains below the replacement level for prolonged periods, population growth gradually slows and can eventually turn negative.
Experts caution that such trends may lead to several long-term challenges, including:
An ageing population
A shrinking working-age workforce
Increased pressure on welfare systems
Greater strain on healthcare infrastructure
These concerns have become increasingly relevant as more regions across India report fertility rates below replacement level.
UNFPA Report
India’s changing demographic profile was also reflected in the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) 2025 State of World Population Report.
The UN agency estimated India’s fertility rate at 1.9 births per woman, matching the findings of the SRS report and placing the country below the replacement benchmark once again.
While India’s population remains above 1.46 billion, the latest data indicates that the country is entering a new demographic phase characterised by slower population growth and smaller families.
Why India’s Population Is Still Growing
Despite the decline in fertility, India continues to be the world’s most populous country. The nation overtook China in 2023 to become the largest population globally and still adds millions of people every year.
Demographers attribute this continued growth to population momentum, a phenomenon driven by decades of previously higher birth rates. As a result, even with fewer children being born on average, the overall population continues to expand.
However, experts believe that if fertility rates remain low, population growth could slow substantially in the coming decades and may eventually lead to a declining population later in the century.
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Zubair Amin is a Senior Journalist at NewsX with over seven years of experience in reporting and editorial work. He has written for leading national and international publications, including Foreign Policy Magazine, Al Jazeera, The Economic Times, The Indian Express, The Wire, Article 14, Mongabay, News9, among others. His primary focus is on international affairs, with a strong interest in US politics and policy. He also writes on West Asia, Indian polity, and constitutional issues. Zubair tweets at zubaiyr.amin
