Monsoon 2026: Mumbai could get an early arrival of the southwest monsoon in 2026, as weather experts and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) projections indicate the rains could hit the city between June 2 and June 5. The normal onset date for monsoon in Mumbai is June 11, but current weather patterns suggest rainfall may arrive nearly a week earlier this year.
The IMD has already forecast the monsoon onset over Kerala around May 26, nearly six days ahead of the usual June 1 schedule. If the monsoon advances steadily across the Arabian Sea coast, Maharashtra is likely to begin receiving widespread rainfall from the first week of June.
Mumbai Could See an Earlier Monsoon Arrival This Year
Weather analysts tracking monsoon movement say conditions currently favour a faster northward progression. Private forecasters have also indicated that Maharashtra may start receiving monsoon showers around June 2, while Mumbai could experience sustained rains by June 5.
An unusually rapid advancement last year led to one of the earliest monsoon arrivals in decades for Mumbai, on May 26. Though it is uncertain whether this super-early onset could repeat, the indications are still for an earlier than normal arrival in 2026.
Pre-monsoon showers are also likely in parts of Mumbai and the Konkan region in the last week of May. These short bursts of rain and thunderstorms typically signal the transition into the full monsoon phase.
Mumbai Weather Report: IMD Monitoring Arabian Sea Conditions Closely
The southwest monsoon has already advanced into parts of the Andaman Sea and southeast Arabian Sea, which meteorologists consider a positive sign for timely progression across India’s western coast.
Weather experts, however, warn that the exact date of arrival can still vary depending on the circulation of winds, sea surface temperature and atmospheric pressure systems over the Arabian Sea. Even a delay of two to three days can change the Mumbai onset timeline.
There are also lingering concerns about the potential for below-normal seasonal rainfall because of the evolving El Niño conditions expected to set in later in the monsoon cycle.
Monsoon 2026: Mumbai 10 Day Weather Forecast
The next 10 days are likely to remain hot and humid with a gradual increase in cloud cover and chances of isolated rain activity before the onset of monsoon. Forecast models indicate temperatures may stay between 31°C and 34°C across the city.
| Date | Weather Condition | Max Temp | Min Temp | Rain Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21 | Partly cloudy | 33°C | 28°C | 10% |
| May 22 | Humid with clouds | 33°C | 28°C | 15% |
| May 23 | Mostly cloudy | 32°C | 28°C | 20% |
| May 24 | Light pre-monsoon showers possible | 32°C | 27°C | 35% |
| May 25 | Thunderstorms likely in some areas | 31°C | 27°C | 45% |
| May 26 | Cloudy with scattered rain | 31°C | 27°C | 50% |
| May 27 | Intermittent showers | 30°C | 27°C | 55% |
| May 28 | Rain activity may increase | 30°C | 26°C | 60% |
| May 29 | Moderate rainfall possible | 29°C | 26°C | 65% |
| May 30 | Cloudy with frequent showers | 29°C | 26°C | 70% |
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