As the high-stakes Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 enter its final stretch, political analysts and data models, including advanced AI-based seat prediction systems, are offering early insights into who could win the Bihar polls. The battle lines are sharply drawn between the NDA alliance, the opposition-ledINDIA Bloc, and Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party.
We gave ChatGPT a prompt, “Act as a highly experienced and non-partisan Political Analyst and Data Scientist. Your task is to analyze the following comprehensive data on the ongoing Bihar Assembly Elections and, based purely on this information and your historical political knowledge of Bihar, predict the most likely winning coalition/alliance and its projected range of seats,” to analyze the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 trends.
As per ChatGPT, the most likely Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 winner will be NDA with a seat estimate broadly in the 125-150 range out of 243. NDA seat-sharing shows an aggressive contest plan; the BJP and JD(U) contested large, roughly equal slates. Analysts and media identify Tirhut, Seemanchal, and Magadh as the decisive regions, these are where small swings flip multiple seats.
ChatGPT Sites: These Reasons Why NDA Wins
Strong Alliance Structure: The NDA combines the BJP, JD (U), LJP (RV), and other allies, covering a wide spread. This seat-sharing strategy ensures presence in nearly all key constituencies, improving vote conversion.
Organizational Strength & Campaign Reach: NDA has a well-organized ground network with party workers mobilizing voters, ensuring higher turnout in their favour. Key figures such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Nitish Kumar, Amit Shah, and more held big Bihar Elections 2025 campaign rallies to amplify their message effectively.
Incumbency Advantage in Development Work: NDA-led government highlights infrastructure projects, welfare schemes, and power subsidy programs, which often attract voters if they are beneficial for them. Voters often reward visible development and scheme delivery, especially in rural areas.
Gemini Says NDA Wins
We gave Gemini the same prompt, and it produced a similar AI-driven analysis of the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025. Like ChatGPT, Gemini evaluated voter turnout trends, historical voting patterns, caste dynamics, regional strongholds, and the impact of new entrants such as the Jan Suraaj Party. Its projection also suggested that the NDA is likely to secure a majority, with a seat estimate broadly in the 125-145 range out of 243.
Gemini Sites: These Reasons Why NDA Wins
Historical Performances: In the closely fought 2020 election, the NDA secured 125 seats, holding a slight edge over the Mahagathbandhan’s 110 seats, despite a similar vote share.
Alliance Cohesion: The NDA is contesting the election with a largely stable and well defined seat sharing arrangement among its major allies (BJP and JD (U) congestion 101 seats each.) the Mahagathbandhan, despite strong partner like RJD, faces visible internal friction, with the Congress being highlighted as a weak link and having conflicted with the RJD in the same constituencies.
Strategic Caste: The NDA has executed a strategic ticket distribution to target Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), which together constitute over half of Bihar’s population. The JD(U)’s list is heavily skewed towards OBCs and EBCs, especially Kurmis and Kushwahas.
Using current turnout signals, seat sharin maps and regional strengths, the NDA is the frontrunner with a most likely seat band of 125-150 seats.
Manisha Chauhan is a passionate journalist with 3 years of experience in the media industry, covering everything from trending entertainment buzz and celebrity spotlights to thought-provoking book reviews and practical health tips. Known for blending fresh perspectives with reader-friendly writing, she creates content that informs, entertains, and inspires. When she’s not chasing the next viral story, you’ll find her diving into a good book or exploring new wellness trends.
