The US attacks on Iran’s nuclear program have heightened concerns of a wider regional war in the Middle East. Iran has invested decades in developing military capabilities aimed in part to deter such attacks, but since the US has joined Israel’s war with Tehran, the restraint on a full-scale, all-out war may be lost.
What Can Iran Do Next After the US Attacks?
In the wake of the rising tensions between the US, Iran and Israel, here’s an explainer on the primary means through which Iran may retaliate and what it could potentially mean for the Middle East in particular and the world at large.
Targeting the Strait of Hormuz: Is the Oil Lifeline at Risk?
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s critical chokepoints for oil, given that some 20% of global oil travels through this thin 33-kilometer (21-mile) waterway at its most constricted point, according to a report published by The Associated Press on Sunday.
Iran, which dominates the shores along this strait, reportedly maintains a fleet of attack boats and many thousands of naval mines that could render passage hazardous or even briefly impassable. It might also conduct missile strikes from the coast, as its ally, Yemen’s Houthi rebels, have recently done in the Red Sea.
The US Navy’s 5th Fleet, with its headquarters in nearby Bahrain, promised to maintain the strait open. A brief disruption, however, could drive oil prices through the roof globally and cause huge economic ripple effects.
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Striking US Bases and Regional Friends
The US has tens of thousands of troops stationed throughout the Middle East, with key bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, all of which are just across the Persian Gulf from Iran.
While these bases have improved air defense, they might be susceptible to surprise bursts of missiles or swarms of drones. Israel, even further away, has been unable to intercept all incoming attacks, so Iran’s proximity to the United States presents a target of opportunity.
Iran could also target oil and gas installations in these nations to increase the cost of American participation. According to the AP report, a 2019 drone attack, which many blamed on Iran, had cut Saudi Arabia’s oil production in half for a considerable period.
Mobilising Regional Allies: The Axis of Resistance
Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” is an alliance of militant organisations throughout the Middle East that advance its agendas. Despite the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel and subsequent IDF retaliations having dented some of them, including the Palestinian armed group Hamas, the Islamic Jihad and Lebanon-based Hezbollah, reports suggest that Tehran has other allies waiting in the line to attack.
The Houthis in Yemen recently vowed to defend Iran if America gets involved, and the group has the drone and missile capabilities to strike US targets in the area. Iran-backed militias in Iraq may also be drawn in.
Another possibility to this effect is also that Iran might try attacking further abroad, such as the one on the lines of the fatal 1990s bombing of a Jewish community center in Argentina, an operation that was attributed to Iran and Hezbollah.
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A Race Toward Nuclear Arms?
Analysts cited by the publication predict that the US and Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities will only serve to slow down, but not eliminate, Tehran’s nuclear efforts.
Iran’s nuclear operations are spread across many locations and consist of buried, hardened structures. Given that repairing damages amid continuous air patrols would be difficult, Iran might refuse to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and withdraw from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty entirely.
Historically, North Korea pulled out of the pact in 2003 and exploded a nuclear bomb three years later, with no retaliation via airstrike during the development of its program, as reported by the AP.
Iran has been consistently insisted that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes but it is the only non-nuclear-armed nation enriching uranium to 60%, just a few numbers shy of weapons-grade of 90%. American intelligence and the IAEA, however, suggest that Tehran hasn’t actively developed a weapons program since 2003.
Israel, long suspected to be the sole nuclear power in the region, hasn’t publicly acknowledged or denied it has nuclear capabilities.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s Warning
Since Israel’s surprise attacks on June 13 on Iranian military and nuclear installations, Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have warned America to keep out or suffer “grave consequences” for the whole region.
Whether or not those threats will materialise remains to be seen. However, if Iran decides to strike back, it holds a seemingly larger and closer list of expected targets within the region compared to Israel.
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