Dainik Bhaskar is predicting a clear majority for the NDA bloc in the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025. According to its numbers, released on Tuesday, NDA is set to win 145-160, and Mahagathbandhan is about to win 73-91, while other parties, including Prashant Kishoor’s Jan Suraaj, are set to win 5-10.
2020 Bihar Elections Exit Polls vs Results
In 2020, exit polls predicted a close win for the RJD-led Mahagathbandha. An average of 11 exit polls predicted 125 seats for the coalition. The majority mark for the Bihar Assembly is 122 seats with a total of 243 seats. The exit polls predicted 108 seats for the JD(U)-led NDA. When the results finally came out, the results were completely different with NDA winning 125 seats while as Mahagathbandhan won 110 seats.
A few agencies like Patriotic Voter, P-Marq, and ABP News-CVoter predicted the NDA majority coming close to the results. However, News 18-Today’s Chanakya just predicted 55 seats for NDA while predicting all three projecting an NDA majority. News 18-Today’ Chanakya was the furthest off the mark with its prediction of 55 seats for the NDA and 180 seats for the Mahagathbandhan.
2015 Bihar Elections Exit Polls vs Results
The 2015 Bihar elections were completely different from the 2020 and the current ones. In the 2015 Bihar Assembly election, archrivals RJD and JD(U) were fighting together against the BJP-led coalition, including undivided LJP, the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party, and Jitan Ram Manji’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular).
In 2015, exit polls predicted a close win for Mahagathbandhan, saying that the collation would cross the majority mark by just one seat. The average of six exit polls predicted 123 seats for Mahagathbandhan while giving 114 seats for NDA.
However, the final results were completely different from the exit polls. RJD-JD(U)-Congress collation won 178 seats while the BJP-led NDA won just 58 seats. Among the five exit polls, three predicted a win for the RJD-JD(U)-Congress collation while two predicted an NDA win. One agency even predicted a hung assembly.
Among all agencies, the CNN IBN-Axis poll was the one that was closest in predicting the elections. It had predicted 176 seats for the Mahagathbandhan and 64 seats for the NDA.
Zubair Amin is a Senior Journalist at NewsX with over seven years of experience in reporting and editorial work. He has written for leading national and international publications, including Foreign Policy Magazine, Al Jazeera, The Economic Times, The Indian Express, The Wire, Article 14, Mongabay, News9, among others. His primary focus is on international affairs, with a strong interest in US politics and policy. He also writes on West Asia, Indian polity, and constitutional issues. Zubair tweets at zubaiyr.amin
