The United States just launched a major strike on Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. But while the world was still reeling, someone else, probably sitting in another country, quietly walked away with $400,000.
Was this a case of insider trading?
The News Republic reports that a new user popped up on Polymarket, the prediction market, and made a string of suspiciously lucky bets.
The account showed up on December 27. And here’s the weird part: the user only placed bets on two things—the U.S. bombing Venezuela, and Maduro being ousted by January 31. They dropped $35,000 on these two outcomes, even though the odds of a U.S. bombing were sitting at just 6%.
How a trader got rich after the US bombed Venezuela
Then, almost overnight, those bets paid off big time. The user pocketed over $400,000.
Axios says a few other people made similar bets and scored thousands, too. For most people, Maduro’s sudden capture felt like a bolt from the blue. That’s exactly why these lucky traders have everyone talking.
The wagers hit their highest point on Friday evening, several hours before the announcement that Trump would make on the early morning of Saturday.
A report by The Wall Street Journal further indicates that the market on whether or not Maduro will be captured and kicked out of power shot up high shortly before 10 pm ET on Friday, after the market had been in the low single-digit range all through the week.
According to Axios, the suspicious account has made 436,759.61 out of their bet, all in all, after the capture of Maduro.
Maduro in US custody by January 31? The question soared there at 4:20 am ET, after lingering at the bottom of the scale in recent weeks, coinciding with the time Trump announced his extraction to the US.
Who is behind the bets?
The mint of the large sum of money has not been identified yet, and Polymarket has not issued any official statement.
According to a report by CBS, US military officials had first talked about bombing Venezuela on Christmas Day. They howeve,r overturned the move by focusing on the ISIS attacks in Nigeria instead.
When Trump and his officials continued to silence the news about the bombing in Venezuela, a person who had insider information about the bombing would have grabbed the chance and earned himself a fortune.
