P-Marq Bihar Exit Polls Result 2025: Voting for the final phase of the Bihar Assembly elections has concluded, and attention now shifts to the exit poll predictions. The P-Marq Exit Poll has predicted a big victory for the NDA.
Here are the exit poll predictions:
NDA: 142-162
MGB: 80-98
Jan Suraaj Party: 1-4
Others: 0-3
Exit Polls vs Results: How Predictions Went Wrong in Bihar Elections 2015 and 2020
Exit polls have often struggled to capture the political mood of Bihar, and the 2015 and 2020 Assembly elections were clear examples of that.
In the 2020 Bihar elections, most exit polls predicted a narrow win for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, estimating around 125 seats for the alliance and 108 for the NDA. The majority mark in the 243-member assembly is 122. However, when results were announced, the outcome flipped, the NDA secured 125 seats while the Mahagathbandhan finished with 110. A few agencies like Patriotic Voter, P-Marq, and ABP News-CVoter came close to the actual result, while News18-Today’s Chanakya missed the mark by a wide margin, predicting only 55 seats for the NDA and 180 for the Mahagathbandhan.
The 2015 elections told a different story. That year, the RJD-JD(U)-Congress alliance went up against the BJP-led coalition. Exit polls then forecast a tight race, giving Mahagathbandhan 123 seats and NDA 114 on average. But when the votes were counted, the grand alliance swept the polls, winning 178 seats against NDA’s 58.
Shivam Verma is a journalist with over three years of experience in digital newsrooms. He currently works at NewsX, having previously worked for Firstpost and DNA India. A postgraduate diploma holder in Integrated Journalism from the Asian College of Journalism, Chennai, Shivam focuses on international affairs, diplomacy, defence, and politics. Beyond the newsroom, he is passionate about football—both playing and watching—and enjoys travelling to explore new places and cuisines.
