As the dust settles on the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, all eyes are on Chirag Paswan, the young Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) [LJP (RV)] chief who is fast emerging as one of Bihar’s most influential political figures. After a record-breaking voter turnout in the state, exit polls suggest that Paswan’s party could make significant inroads, strengthening both his position within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and his own political stature.
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Paswan’s stellar performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where LJP (RV) contested five seats and won all five with a 100% success rate, had already elevated his bargaining power within the NDA. This time, under the seat-sharing agreement, his party contested 29 out of 243 seats in the Bihar Assembly polls, while the BJP and JD(U) fielded candidates in 101 constituencies each.
A mega exit poll by News18 predicted that the NDA is headed for a comfortable majority in Bihar, estimating 140–150 seats for the alliance. Within this, LJP (RV) is expected to secure 10–15 seats, marking a strong comeback compared to its 2020 performance, when it won just one seat after going solo.
How Many Seats Will Chirag Paswan’s LJP Win? What do 5 Surveys say?
According to multiple exit poll surveys, Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas) could emerge as one of the standout performers of this election. While estimates vary, the consensus points toward a notable surge in support for the party across its contested constituencies.
Here’s what major survey agencies have predicted for LJP (RV):
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Chanakya: 14–19 seats
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Poll Diary: 12–16 seats
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TIF Research: 12–14 seats
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Polstrat: 9–12 seats
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Matrize-IANS: 7–9 seats
Among these, Chanakya’s projection appears to be the most optimistic, suggesting that Paswan could nearly triple his influence in the Bihar Assembly. Even the lower estimates indicate that LJP (RV) is on track to outperform its 2020 results significantly.
From Lone Challenger to Key NDA Player
In 2020, Chirag Paswan had contested alone after a fallout with allies over seat-sharing. Though his party won only one seat, it managed to dent JD(U)’s performance in nearly 29 constituencies contributing to Nitish Kumar’s reduced tally.
However, in 2025, the political script has changed. Paswan has not only repaired ties with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar but also earned goodwill within the NDA. He recently praised Nitish as a “necessity” for the state and a “case study in political longevity,” even dismissing any anti-incumbency sentiment against him.
Paswan’s visible camaraderie with Nitish highlighted by the CM’s visit to his home during Chhath signals a renewed alliance spirit that could pay dividends for the NDA.
What will be the future of Chirag Paswan?
Exit polls suggest that Chirag Paswan could emerge as one of the kingmakers in Bihar politics, potentially demanding a key role possibly that of Deputy Chief Minister if the NDA returns to power with a comfortable majority.
Political analysts believe the 43-year-old “Yuva Bihari” has managed to blend charisma, caste arithmetic, and strategic alliance-building, positioning himself as a future face of Bihar’s leadership.
While exit polls don’t always reflect the final outcome, one thing is clear Chirag Paswan’s political rise is no longer a fluke. If the predictions hold true, the LJP (Ram Vilas) could be on its way to becoming a decisive force in Bihar’s evolving power structure.
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Sofia Babu Chacko is a journalist with over five years of experience covering Indian politics, crime, human rights, gender issues, and stories about marginalized communities. She believes that every voice matters, and journalism has a vital role to play in amplifying those voices. Sofia is committed to creating impact and shedding light on stories that truly matter. Beyond her work in the newsroom, she is also a music enthusiast who enjoys singing.
