Gold Could Approach USD 5,000 per Ounce in 2026
Gold prices could move close to USD 5,000 per ounce in 2026, supported by strong official sector buying, tightening supply conditions, and stabilising investor flows, according to a new research report by Deutsche Bank. The report highlighted that gold is breaking historical norms and continues to show exceptional performance against the US dollar.
“It stated ‘Altogether these suggest an upgrade to our 2026 forecast to USD 4,450/oz from USD 4,000/oz previously, and a yearly range from 3,950-4,950/oz in 2026’.”
The report upgraded its 2026 gold price forecast to USD 4,450 per ounce, up from its earlier estimate of USD 4,000. Importantly, the bank expects gold to trade in a yearly range of USD 3,950 to USD 4,950 per ounce in 2026, placing its upper limit within touching distance of the USD 5,000 mark.
However, the report noted that a high of USD 4,950 per ounce would be a 14 per cent premium over current December 2026 futures prices. The forecast for 2027 stands even higher, at USD 5,150 per ounce, according to the report.
What Are The Key Factors Supporting Gold’s Rise?
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Stabilising Investor Flows & Technical Measures: Gold’s strong performance is backed by stabilising investor flows and technical factors indicating that a correction in positioning has been completed.
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Central Bank Interest: Q3 supply-demand data shows continued interest from central banks, with official gold demand in real US dollar terms ranking as the third highest on record in Q3 2025.
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Rise in Inelastic Demand: Strong demand from central banks and ETFs is diverting gold supply away from jewellery markets.
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Geopolitical & Diversification Concerns: Central banks are particularly active due to geopolitical risks and the need to diversify reserves.
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Projected Growth in Official Demand: Official sector gold demand is expected to rise to 1,053 tonnes in 2026, up from 853 tonnes in 2025.
Supply Constraints And Bullish Outlook For Gold
On the supply side, gold’s availability remains relatively constrained, adding to the upward pressure on prices. The increase in mined gold production is expected to be modest, with global output projected at 3,715 tonnes in 2026, reflecting only a limited response to rising prices. Recycled gold supply is also constrained, estimated at 1,470 tonnes for 2026, which remains below the peak levels observed in previous periods.
This combination of steady demand and restricted supply creates a favorable environment for sustained high prices. Considering these dynamics, Deutsche Bank expects gold to continue its recent momentum and potentially approach the USD 5,000 per ounce mark in 2026, signaling another year of extraordinary performance for the precious metal.
“Thus we see a likelihood of another year of above-model rate of growth in the gold price. We have quantified this excess performance by measuring the pace of official demand over the 2011-21 average, and indexing that to a historical ETF-to-gold price regression,” the report stated.
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