India and the United States are in the final stretch of crucial trade negotiations, with only days left before the July 8 deadline that could shape the future of bilateral economic relations. According to the Global Trade and Research Initiative (GTRI), both sides are working toward a limited “mini-deal” agreement.
India’s chief trade negotiator is currently in Washington to iron out the details. The deadline follows President Trump’s 90-day suspension of country-specific tariffs announced on April 2. If no deal is struck, India may again face higher tariffs, although analysts believe a return to the harsh 26% duties is unlikely.
The deal is expected to resemble the US-UK mini deal signed in May. Under this framework, India could lower Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariffs on industrial goods, including automobiles—a long-standing American demand.
In agriculture, India may offer limited access to U.S. products like ethanol, almonds, apples, avocados, wine, and spirits via modest tariff reductions and tariff-rate quotas. However, core sectors like dairy, rice, and wheat will likely remain protected due to their importance to rural livelihoods and food security.
Strategic purchases may also be part of the deal. India could commit to buying U.S. oil, LNG, civilian aircraft, and nuclear equipment. Washington is also pressing India to ease regulations on multi-brand retail and remanufactured goods, potentially benefiting major players like Amazon and Walmart.
In exchange, the U.S. would refrain from re-imposing the steeper 26% tariffs and instead apply a base 10% tariff on Indian goods. However, the U.S. will not reduce its own MFN tariffs, raising concerns over the lack of reciprocity in the proposed deal.
Tensions remain high on agriculture. If the U.S. pushes for deeper access to India’s agri sector or insists on GMO imports, the talks could collapse. India maintains that these demands threaten its food security and the livelihood of over 700 million people dependent on agriculture.
Experts also warn that concessions today could set precedents that weaken India’s MSP system and public procurement policies. While agriculture forms a small portion of U.S. exports to India, it remains a major sticking point in negotiations.
Should talks fail, it’s unclear if President Trump will reintroduce the tougher tariffs, but analysts see it as unlikely—though not impossible, given his unpredictable approach to trade.
GTRI stressed that any agreement must be reciprocal and protect India’s core interests. “Any trade deal with the U.S. must not be politically driven or one-sided; it must protect our farmers, our digital ecosystem, and our sovereign regulatory space,” it stated.
President Trump, speaking earlier today, hinted at a major deal in the works. “We have one coming up, maybe with India. Very big one… We’re going to open up India,” he said.
(From ANI)
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