The southwest monsoon is a deal in India. It brings relief from the summer and helps the farming industry.. It is hard to predict when it will arrive. The weather forecast said the monsoon would come early. It has not happened yet. The India Meteorological Department said it would start on May 26 2026 in Kerala.. That date has passed and the monsoon has not arrived. Now they say it will come between June 2 and June 4 2026. The weather people say this is not a delay and the monsoon is still on track.
The Arrival Window: When Will the Monsoon Hit Kerala?
The India Meteorological Department initially said the southwest monsoon would make landfall over Kerala on May 26 2026. This was earlier than the June 1 start.. Now they say the southwest monsoon will come between June 2 and June 4 2026. The weather officials say this delay is normal and the southwest monsoon will only be considered late if it does not arrive by June 8.
The Technical Delay: Why Did It Miss the Early Date?
Some parts of Kerala are having rain and cloudy skies.. The India Meteorological Department cannot say the southwest monsoon has started until some conditions are met. The early start was stopped by a things:
Cyclonic Disturbance over Lakshadweep
There is a storm over Lakshadweep that is disrupting the winds. This is stopping the southwest monsoon from bringing rain to the mainland.
Unmet Rainfall Criteria
Not enough of the weather stations in Kerala have had rain. They need to have least 2.5 mm of rain for two days in a row.
Lagging Wind Speeds and OLR Values
The winds in the Arabian Sea are not strong enough. They need to be at 15 to 20 knots. Also the satellite readings are not showing cloud cover.
The Broader Seasonal Outlook
The weather people think that once the storm over Lakshadweep goes away the southwest monsoon will start properly.
A Note on El Niño
The India Meteorological Department and Skymet think that there might be an El Niño later in the season. This means that the total rain for the season might be less, than normal. The country might have some wet periods and some very dry periods as the southwest monsoon moves north.
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