Recharge Plan hike: Telecom operators are expected to implement a 15 per cent hike in mobile tariffs after a period of two years. A move that experts and analysts estimate will more than double the sector’s growth rate by FY27.
As per a noted report from Jefferies on Thursday reported that “We expect mobile tariffs in India to rise by 15 per cent in June 2026, two years after the last major adjustments—a timeline that aligns with historical industry trends.“ Apart from price hike the report also highlighted the rising data penetration, a shift towards postpaid plans, and surging data usage are consistently driving up India’s mobile Average Revenue Per User (ARPU).
Recharge price hike: FY27 revenue
Recharge price hike and strategic pricing adjustments are likely to boost the sector revenue growth to 16 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in FY27, which is a jump from the estimated 7 per cent YoY growth for FY26. Given the high likelihood of a 15 per cent headline tariff hike in June 2026, the experts model a healthy 14 per cent YoY growth in ARPU for FY27. However, the report cautions that subscriber additions may remain muted as consumers adjust to the increased costs.
Recharge price hike: impact on Jio and VI
Recharge price hike is also projected to involve a 10-20 per cent price hike, particularly from Reliance Jio. This move is planned to align its valuation more closely with Bharti Airtel and provide investors with a double-digit internal rate of return. Whereas the outlook for the debt-ridden Vodafone Idea (VI) remains challenging, the company needs to increase mobile service rates by a cumulative 45 per cent between FY27 and FY30 to meet its heavy statutory dues.
In the current scenario, the government has frozen VI’s Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) dues at Rs. 87,695 crores, with payments scheduled to commence in FY32 and conclude by FY41. However, a proposed five-year moratorium could reduce VI’s immediate cash outflows toward government dues by 35-85 per cent through FY30. The company will still require massive tariff hikes and additional debt or equity funding to sustain its network investments.
Recharge price hike: capex and margins
An increase in recharge price and the completion of major 5G rollouts are expected to lead to improved margins for telcos as capital expenditure (capex) begins to moderate. The experts believe that the most intensive phase of 5G infrastructure investment is now ended, with spending intensity expected to remain moderate through FY27.
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Syed Ziyauddin is a media and international relations enthusiast with a strong academic and professional foundation. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Mass Media from Jamia Millia Islamia and a Master’s in International Relations (West Asia) from the same institution.
He has work with organizations like ANN Media, TV9 Bharatvarsh, NDTV and Centre for Discourse, Fusion, and Analysis (CDFA) his core interest includes Tech, Auto and global affairs.
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