Three years into the war in Ukraine, doubts about American support are causing serious concerns for military and political leaders in Kyiv. The recent remarks of President Donald Trump that the US could scale back from the fighting have raised alarm on both sides of the Atlantic regarding what this might entail on the battlefield, according to a recent report published by ABC News.
During a June interview, Trump likened the war in Ukraine to two children fighting in a park, reportedly saying, “Sometimes you see two young children fighting in the park. Sometimes you’re better off letting them fight more before you pull them apart.” His comments came after months of criticising America under the Biden administration for continuing to support Ukraine in its war against Russia.
While Trump’s remarks were seen as provocative by some, others perceived them as his frustration over the challenge of achieving a diplomatic breakthrough in the now long-drawn war.
Inside Slowing But Still Crucial US Aid to Ukraine
Although US support to Ukraine has been enormous — approximately $74 billion since 2022 — reports suggest that the aid is slowing. The US administration had in April cleared a $50 million military sale to Ukraine, but only after Kyiv agreed to a contentious minerals agreement, as reported by ABC News. Meanwhile, approximately $3.9 billion set aside for priority military aid remains untapped, the report said.
Oleksandr Merezhko, the head of Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee and a lawmaker from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s party, told ABC News, “Without American weaponry, the situation on the battlefield will of course be more difficult.”
According to the report, the US assistance provides roughly 30% of Ukraine’s weaponry.
Past Aid Freezes Reflect Ukraine’s Resilience, But What About Now?
In 2024, a nine-month suspension of US aid due to a gridlocked Congress left Kyiv scrambling through a world without the US help. Then in March this year, Trump placed a week-long hold on all military assistance and intelligence sharing. And while the US aid to Ukraine subsequently resumed, uncertainty over its subsequent allocation and future prospects lingered.
Oleksandr V. Danylyuk, a UK-based associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told ABC News that while American aid is “significant,” it’s “not crucial.” He added that a rough estimate of around half the US-provided guns and ammunition could be replaced by substitutes, though the problem is finding them in time.
Can Europe Fill the Gap?
Reflecting on the changing dynamics, Tufts University analyst Pavel Luzin recently told the network, “The last (Biden) administration made a decision that the American taxpayers would pay for it. The current administration now wishes to share this burden”.
Europe, also with financial muscle, could step up assistance. “Europe can pay for the American weapons for Ukraine and it has sufficient funds for this,” Luzin reportedly said.
He also proposed that Ukraine finance weapons through long-term loans from Europe or the US, potentially drawing on frozen Russian assets, as reported by ABC News.
Geopolitical strategist Tina Fordham told the publication, “Europe is initially slow to act, but then it can act decisively,” as she referenced past examples like the COVID-19 pandemic response.
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Why Air Defense Systems Matter More Than Ever
Among US military hardware, the Patriot missile system stands out as one of Ukraine’s most valuable assets. Since arriving in 2023, Patriots have been reportes to intercept drones, ballistic missiles, even Russian hypersonic missiles.
Ukraine has at least six Patriot systems in operation now — two supplied by the US and others from NATO allies, the report said. Zelenskyy, who has time and again stressed on the urgency and necessity of boosting his country’s air defenses to defend Kyiv against what he says is increasing Russian missile fire, has reportedly said, “We need positive signals from the United States — solid signals about air defense systems. We still wait for an answer to our appeal.”
Weighing in on the existing situation, Danylyuk further told ABC News, “Without American defenses, Kyiv would be hit in the same way as Odesa or Zaporizhizha. There will be more civilians dying; that’s the only difference.”
Intelligence and Ammunition: Lifelines on the Battlefield?
The US also has reportedly offered key intelligence assistance, such as satellite imagery and weapons-tracking flights, that provided Ukraine with advance warning of Russian missile strikes. The Center for Strategic and International Studies, cited by the publication, pointed to this assistance as “extensive” in assisting Ukraine in responding to missile barrages and interfering with Russian operations.
When intelligence sharing temporarily halted in March, Ukrainian politicians voiced grave concerns, suggesting it would cost lives.
Additionally, stocks of ammunition are another worry. The US shipped more than three million 155mm rounds of ammo during Biden’s presidency, the report said, adding that any interruption of this supply could turn fatal for front-line soldiers.
Signs of an American Retreat?
A halt to US support would be a significant loss for Ukraine, with its potential impact expected to extend far beyond ammunition. Ukraine depends on American equipment for important weapons systems such as HIMARS rocket artillery, ATACMS missiles with a range of hundreds of miles, and parts in British-French cruise missiles, howitzers, and F-16 fighter aircraft, which effectively provides Washington with leverage over what Ukraine can obtain, the report suggests.
Danylyuk further told ABC News, “An end to American aid would cause some difficulties, although it would not be a total disaster if Ukraine finds quick substitutes.”
“Ukraine is not going to fall apart. We could endure those horrible nine months without the US aid. So, it’s not that Ukrainians are going to give up.”
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