With the Israel-Iran war heating up and with the US involvement on the rise, the world has been observing how Tehran’s influential allies would react. To the surprise of many, however, key regional players in the volatile Middle East, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Iraq’s Shiite militias, and Yemen’s Houthis, have all seemingly stayed out of the larger conflict. From concerns over domestic stability to past losses to strategic moves, here’s why many of these groups could be refraining from making any moves to signal active involvement in the conflict, at least for now.
Why Is Hezbollah Sitting Out the Israel-Iran Conflict?
Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Kassem, in his first public comments since the US entered the conflict with strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, told the group’s Al-Ahad newspaper that the group is prepared to aid “any decision taken by the Lebanese state to oblige Israel to end the war,” The Associated Press reported on Monday.
Kassem warned that attacks on Iran would “bear a high cost” and criticized US President Donald Trump’s remarks on possible assassination Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei as “a vile act and a sign of weakness, the report said.
Even with Hezbollah’s historic status as Iran’s frontline troops against Israel, the group has not joined the current conflict. The group did become involved following Hamas’ October 7, 2023, assault on Israel that sparked months of cross-border fighting. But that battle subsided in November, following Israel’s heavy bombing and reported assassination of previous Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Andreas Krieg, a military analyst at King’s College London, told AP, “Hezbollah has been degraded on the strategic level while cut off from supply chains in Syria.”
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Iraqi Militias and the Houthis: Echoes but No Action
Other Iran-aligned movements also appear to be walking a tight line. Iraqi group Kataib Hezbollah, which used to warn American forces that they would be at war if Washington intervened, has been silent since Sunday’s attacks. Similarly, Yemen’s Houthis, who signed an agreement last month to desist from attacking American ships in return for a suspension of attacks on Yemen, denounced America’s attack on Iran as “a grave escalation”, but didn’t strike back.
Are the Key Players of ‘Axis of Resistance’ Lying Low?
These groups and organisations, collectively known as the “Axis of Resistance”, are central to Iran’s regional policy. But analysts say they’re holding back for the moment. “Iran probably prefers these groups to remain intact and functional,” Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient’s Tamer Badawi told the US-based news agency, adding, “But if Iran incurs unsustainable losses or the Supreme Leader is killed, those might serve as triggers.”
For Hezbollah, the option may also be survival. Lebanon is reportedly still trying to recover from economic and political upheaval, and government leaders have openly appealed to the group to avoid getting involved in yet another war. According to the report, US envoy Tom Barrack last week warned that having Hezbollah become involved would be a “very bad decision.”
Strategic Restraint or Temporary Pause?
Renad Mansour of Chatham House told the publication that Iraq’s militias are already benefiting from being included in the Iraqi state. “Things in Iraq are good for them right now, and they’re afraid that Israel will turn against them as well,” he said, according to AP.
Nevertheless, While stressing that the conflict is “still in its infancy”, Qassem Qassir, a Lebanese analyst with close ties to Hezbollah, reportedly said, “Even Iran hasn’t bombed the American bases, but Israel,” adding that in contrast to Hezbollah, “the Houthis and the Iraqi militias do not have the strategic deep strike capability against Israel.”
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