Axis My India is predicting a marginal win for the BJP-JDU-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Bihar Assembly elections 2025. According to the exit poll agency, NDA is likely to win 121-140 seats, while as Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) led Mahagathbandhan is likely to win 98-118 seats. The poll agency has predicted 0-2 seats for Prashant Kishor’s Jan Swaraj Party while giving 1-7 seats to others.
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Several exit polls on Tuesday evening projected a sweeping victory for the BJP-JDU-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections. The alliance is expected to secure between 130 and 209 seats, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 122 in the 243-member assembly.
In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan – comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and Left parties – is forecast to fall significantly short, with projections ranging between 70 and 102 seats.
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Matrize, P-Marq, and Peoples Pulse Predict Clear Mandate For NDA
Major agencies, including Matrize, P-Marq, and Peoples Pulse, placed the NDA well ahead of its rivals. Their predictions, if accurate, indicate a strong return of the ruling coalition in Bihar.
However, the much-discussed Jan Suraaj Party, led by political strategist Prashant Kishor, which was widely believed to potentially disrupt the traditional two-front contest, appears to have made little electoral impact, according to these exit polls.
Reactions From NDA And Mahagathbandhan
While leaders of the JD(U) and BJP celebrated the poll projections, the opposition camp outright dismissed the exit poll results, maintaining confidence that the actual outcome on counting day will tell a different story.
The Election Commission of India has confirmed that the counting of votes will begin at 8 a.m. on November 14 across all 38 districts under tight security arrangements. Final results are expected to be declared later that day.
Record Voter Turnout in Two Phases of Bihar Assembly Elections 2025
The 2025 Bihar Assembly election was held in two phases, witnessing a record voter participation. The overall turnout stood at 66.91 per cent, which the Election Commission described as the highest-ever in the state’s electoral history.
The first phase of voting, conducted on November 6, saw a 65.08 per cent turnout, while the second phase, held on November 11, recorded a 68.67 per cent turnout. The counting is scheduled for November 14, with results to come out on the same day.
Also Read: Bihar Assembly Elections 2025: How Women Voters Outnumbered and Outshined Men at the Polls
Zubair Amin is a Senior Journalist at NewsX with over seven years of experience in reporting and editorial work. He has written for leading national and international publications, including Foreign Policy Magazine, Al Jazeera, The Economic Times, The Indian Express, The Wire, Article 14, Mongabay, News9, among others. His primary focus is on international affairs, with a strong interest in US politics and policy. He also writes on West Asia, Indian polity, and constitutional issues. Zubair tweets at zubaiyr.amin
