The Bihar Assembly election results began unfolding today, on November 14, with the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) taking a strong early lead over the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan across several constituencies. Counting began at 8 am on Friday, starting with postal ballots, as mandated by the Election Commission of India (ECI).
While party-wise trends show the NDA leading in overall seat count, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) remains ahead of the BJP in some pockets, indicating a competitive race. Political analysts, however, urge caution, noting that early leads often shift once Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) votes are fully tabulated later in the day.
This election, held in two phases on November 6 and 14, registered an impressive overall voter turnout of 67.13%, with 65.08% in Phase 1 and a significantly higher 69.20% in Phase 2. According to the ECI, this marks the highest voter participation Bihar has recorded since 1951, reflecting heightened political engagement and strong public interest in the state’s electoral process. As counting progresses, a clearer picture of Bihar’s political mandate is expected to emerge, setting the stage for the next chapter in the state’s leadership. but the next question is who will be the next CM of Bihar?
NDA Set for Majority, But Tejashwi Yadav Tops CM Popularity Charts
At least nine exit polls have predicted a majority for the NDA in the two-phase Bihar polls held on November 6 and 11.
However, according to various survey agencies, the most preferred chief ministerial face happens to be RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav.
According to the People’s Pulse exit poll:
Tejashwi Yadav: 32%
Nitish Kumar: 30%
Chirag Paswan: 8%
Prashant Kishor: 8%
This is a striking outcome considering that the NDA is ahead in most seat projections. People’s Pulse predicts:
NDA: 133–159 seats
Mahagathbandhan: 75–101 seats
Jan Suraaj Party: 0–5 seats
Other pollsters, including Axis My India, also show Tejashwi outperforming Nitish Kumar in popularity ratings.
Mahagathbandhan’s Pitch: Anti-Incumbency and Jobs
The Mahagathbandhan, led by the RJD, also comprising the Congress and the Left parties, has been aggressively campaigning on issues of unemployment, governance failures, and anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar’s almost two-decade-long tenure. Though seat projections indicate a trailing opposition, the personal approval rating of Tejashwi Yadav remains remarkably high.
NDA Names Nitish Kumar as CM Face, Denies Reports of Change in Leadership
Despite much debate on Nitish Kumar’s health and declining popularity, NDA has repeatedly said that Nitish Kumar is its undisputed CM face.
Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan reiterated this while campaigning:
“Prime Minister Modi has said it in clear terms we don’t have a vacancy. Our CM face is Nitish Kumar.”
Pradhan dismissed speculation of a rift among Kushwaha leaders, claiming that the community is united behind the NDA.
He also asked why the Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi have not announced Tejashwi Yadav as the CM candidate of Mahagathbandhan.
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj: Small Numbers, Big Statements
While the exit polls predict 0–5 seats for Prashant Kishor’s newly formed Jan Suraaj Party, the former political strategist continues to challenge the BJP’s state-level prospects.
Kishor argued that the BJP “cannot stand on its own feet in Bihar” without a strong local face. He claimed that the party is unlikely to cross 60–70 seats independently, referring to its performance in the 2015 elections.
Who will form government in Bihar?
With Nitish Kumar predicted to lead the NDA to victory and Tejashwi Yadav topping popularity charts, the results of the 2025 Bihar election have set the stage for a dramatic verdict.
While the political equations seem to be loaded in favour of the ruling alliance, the findings of the exit polls underscore an emerging appetite for leadership change.
All eyes now turn to November 14, when the final results will determine whether Bihar opts for continuity under Nitish Kumar or backs Tejashwi Yadav, the opposition’s most visible challenger.
Where Chirag Paswan Stands in the CM Conversation
While speculation is rife over potential contenders for Bihar’s top post, Chirag Paswan is one such name that figures in the list but has not declared his CM candidature as yet. The LJP (Ram Vilas) chief has emerged as one of the most influential young leaders in the state, yet he has not formally projected himself as a Chief Ministerial candidate.
As the dust settles on the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, exit polls seem to indicate that LJP (RV) may indeed see a meteoric rise, with Paswan’s party outperforming expectations and helping to strengthen the NDA’s overall tally. A performance on these lines, if reflected in actual results, would finally seal Paswan’s growing political heft within the alliance.
A vital leitmotif this election has been Chirag’s trajectory from the 2020 fallout to renewed bonhomie with Nitish Kumar. His praise for Nitish as “necessity for Bihar” and the CM’s Chhath visit to his residence have showcased a restored and strategically beneficial partnership. Political observers say this visible camaraderie could turn out to be a major plus for the NDA coalition.
What’s next for Chirag Paswan?
If NDA gets a comfortable majority, says analysts, Chirag Paswan is going to be one of the biggest kingmakers. With popularity on the rise and strong caste backing, he is likely to demand a major power-sharing role, perhaps as Deputy Chief Minister. At 43, the “Yuva Bihari” seems to position himself as a youth icon and a future face in Bihar’s leadership landscape, blending charisma with strategic coalition politics.
Sofia Babu Chacko is a journalist with over five years of experience covering Indian politics, crime, human rights, gender issues, and stories about marginalized communities. She believes that every voice matters, and journalism has a vital role to play in amplifying those voices. Sofia is committed to creating impact and shedding light on stories that truly matter. Beyond her work in the newsroom, she is also a music enthusiast who enjoys singing.
