The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has taken a strong early lead over the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan in several constituencies as counting began for the Bihar Assembly elections 2025 on Friday at 8 am. Party-wise trends show that while NDA leads in seat count, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) of the Mahagathbandhan remains ahead of the BJP in some areas.
Early Trends: NDA Pulls Ahead
The Election Commission of India (ECI) began the counting process with postal ballots. Analysts caution that early leads are not necessarily reflective of the final outcome, with a clearer picture expected as Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) votes are tallied throughout the day.
The Bihar Assembly elections were held in two phases on November 6 and 14, recording an overall voter turnout of 67.13% – 65.08% in Phase 1 and 69.20% in Phase 2. According to the ECI, this is the highest turnout the state has seen since 1951.
Congress Questioned in Mahagathbandhan Performance
While RJD is emerging as the single largest party, it is Congress that is pulling the alliance back and giving the NDA a free pass. Political analysts are examining the role of Congress in the Mahagathbandhan’s performance. Questions have emerged over whether the party’s seat-sharing and vote conversion rates may have hindered the alliance.
Exit polls also suggest a potential setback for the Mahagathbandhan, even as Tejashwi Yadav ran a spirited campaign against Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Observers note a parallel to Uttar Pradesh, where the Akhilesh Yadav-Rahul Gandhi duo faced a decisive defeat despite initial optimism for Samajwadi Party’s prospects.
Congress’ Track Record in Bihar
In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, Congress contested 70 seats but won only 19, a conversion rate considered lower than its partners. In comparison, CPI(ML) (Liberation) won 12 of its 19 contested seats, and the Left alliance collectively won 16 of 29 seats. The final tally saw NDA at 125 and Mahagathbandhan at 110 seats. Analysts cited Congress’ lower performance as a possible drag on the alliance.
During the 2024 general elections, NDA secured 30 of Bihar’s 40 Lok Sabha seats (JD(U) 12, BJP 12, LJP(RV) 5, HAM 1), while the INDIA bloc won only 9 seats – Congress managed 3 and RJD 4. These results reaffirmed NDA’s dominance and suggested that Congress was not the primary engine of opposition gains.
Seat-Sharing Frictions and Campaign Challenges Between Congress And RJD
Congress’ limited electoral footprint also raised seat-sharing questions during the Assembly polls. Rahul Gandhi’s presence in the Bihar campaign was minimal, and when he did appear, it sparked controversy over the use of an image of a Brazilian woman to allege voter fraud, which went viral on social media.
Congress party workers held a demonstration in Bihar following early trends that indicated a strong lead for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) alleging Voter Chori. However, the election results show that the allegations did not resonate with the electorate. The campaign, which largely focused on claims of electoral malpractice and threats to democracy, failed to address pressing local concerns such as unemployment, inflation, and development—areas where the NDA maintained its messaging advantage
Zubair Amin is a Senior Journalist at NewsX with over seven years of experience in reporting and editorial work. He has written for leading national and international publications, including Foreign Policy Magazine, Al Jazeera, The Economic Times, The Indian Express, The Wire, Article 14, Mongabay, News9, among others. His primary focus is on international affairs, with a strong interest in US politics and policy. He also writes on West Asia, Indian polity, and constitutional issues. Zubair tweets at zubaiyr.amin
